Jordan sits at the heart of the ever-shifting sands of the Middle East, walking a tightrope between maintaining neighborly relations, advancing national interests and containing threats to ensure its own security and stability.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Israeli soldiers’ discovery of six of their country’s hostages shot dead in a tunnel underneath Rafah, Gaza has placed the question of a cease-fire’s prospects in stark relief. Coming as the U.S. had already stepped up efforts to push for an Israel-Hamas agreement, the grim fate of the hostages can simultaneously be viewed as providing a catalyst for the urgent conclusion of a deal, or as a harbinger of diplomatic derailment for a process the U.S., Egypt and Qatar had been in the throes of pushing to resolution.

Type: Question and Answer

Conflict Analysis & Prevention;  Peace Processes

USIP convened an expert panel of scholars and researchers over a four-month period in 2023–24 to explore lessons learned from the management of conflicts in prior periods of global turbulence. This is the first paper in a three-part series from the convenings and focuses on the examination of contemporary conflict trends, drivers, and dynamics and how these differ from prior conflicts.

Type: Discussion Paper

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

For weeks, concerns over the risk of miscalculation or even intentional escalation between Israel and Hezbollah have dominated attention. Ramped up cross-border attacks between the two sides on Sunday, August 25 have left each side simultaneously claiming success “for now,” suggesting a much-feared larger conflagration may have been averted in the near term. However, implications for longer-term risk and mutual deterrence, Iran’s calculations for escalation, and linkage to the still-elusive Gaza cease-fire remain uncertain.

Type: Question and Answer

Conflict Analysis & Prevention