Recent reports that Abdul Qayum Karzai, a brother of President Karzai, was planning to run for president in 2014 have caused a stir.

Analysts of Afghanistan have been waiting in suspense to see whether President Karzai would select someone from his family to succeed him. A closer reading of how this story came about suggests that Karzai has probably not made a decision. The announcement is at best a trial balloon, and Karzai may not have been involved in it at all. But it may be a harbinger of the kinds of politics we'll be seeing unfold in Afghanistan.

The source of the reports appears to have been an interview on Afghanistan's Tolo TV with Mahmud Karzai, another Karzai brother, on June 10.  According to a BBC report of the Tolo interview, Mahmud said: "It is true that Qayyum Karzai is a candidate. He will soon announce his nomination." Mahmud added that he endorsed his brother's bid. Mahmud also took a dig at James Risen, the New York Times reporter who on June 3 published a lengthy account of rifts within the Karzai family. Risen had also reported that Qayum was "mulling" a presidential run. Mahumud, in the Tolo interview, denied the allegations of family squabbles and accused Risen of seeking to advance the agenda of those who want the West to leave Afghanistan, but he did confirm that Qayum was set to run.

The day after the Times article, however, the Baltimore Sun's Richard Gorelick quoted Qayum himself as saying: "What makes Jim Risen say that I'm mulling? My decision depends on truly whether I can help, but running for president for the sake of being elected is nonsense in America or Afghanistan. I'm not a politician."

Despite his affirmation that he was not a politician, Qayum's statement was a masterpiece of politician-speak. Given the ambiguity of neither deciding nor mulling nor confirming, it is not surprising that this statement did not put the story to rest.

In another report, and supposedly based on another interview with Mahmud, on June 11, RFE/RL reported that Qayum was "preparing to contest the next Afghan presidential election." Mahmud added cautiously that the President had not said yet whether he would support his brother.

That question was settled in a press conference on June 12, when the President was asked about his brother's putative candidacy. His response: "I heard yesterday that my brother Mahmood Karzai has made an announcement but Qayum himself has not said anything to me. As an Afghan individual, Mahmood has the right to express his personal view and I wouldn't take it from him but the issue of candidacy is a much broader Afghan national issue and it is possible that many candidates will come forward. Personally, I have not thought about any specific candidate to this date. I have especially not thought about the candidacy of my brother."

One cannot blame Karzai, who has proven again how shrewd a tactician he is, for his evasiveness. It is simply too early in the game for him to express a preference for anyone, even a brother. And he is far too experienced to fall into the trap of making decisions on a timetable set by the media. But it does suggest one thing: the prospective 2014 election date might be beginning to generate a new kind of politics in Afghanistan, under essentially democratic rules, with an important role for the media, and a public which is paying close attention.

Scott Smith is the deputy director of USIP's Afghanistan Program. A former U.N. official, Smith has spent an extensive amount of time living in Afghanistan and thinking about its politics and other democratization issues. He is the author of Afghanistan's Troubled Transition: Peacekeeping, Politics and the 2004 Presidential Election (2011).

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