Nigeria’s overstretched military will be pleased that the U.S. is moving ahead with plans to sell the country a dozen small attack planes for its fight against Boko Haram. The high-tech gear on the single-engine Embraer A-29 Super Tucano should improve precision targeting by the Nigerian forces to chase scattered fighters and help avoid disastrous mistakes such as the Jan. 17 bombing of a displaced persons camp that killed as many as 236 people. But with Boko Haram already in retreat and attention shifting to more permanent safety and security, the aircraft also might be of limited use.

A military patrol along National Route 1, now a de facto home to tens of thousands of Nigerians fleeing Boko Haram, near Diffa, Niger.
A military patrol along National Route 1, now a de facto home to tens of thousands of Nigerians fleeing Boko Haram, near Diffa, Niger. Photo Courtesy of The New York Times/Adam Ferguson

The sale, initiated by the Obama administration last year, would strengthen the Multinational Joint Task Force fighting Boko Haram in the Lake Chad region, a group of Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, Chad and Benin. Despite opposition to the deal from human rights advocates over failures of Nigeria’s military to protect civilians in the fighting and over alleged abuses, key U.S. lawmakers previously skeptical of the sale now support it.

But the military picture has changed enough since the election of President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 that the usefulness of tactical aircraft with sophisticated targeting gear might be limited in the fight against Boko Haram. The militant group has been degraded to the point that it no longer controls any territory in Nigeria. Its fighters have scattered to the forests. While it continues to commit horrifying acts of terrorism, the group is no longer capable of mounting conventional attacks.

The security challenge for Nigeria now is more about what happens on the ground than what the government and its military can do from the sky.

The key to permanent defeat of Boko Haram in its home base of the impoverished northeast will depend on the government’s ability to restore safety and security over the long-term. Since the declaration of a state of emergency in 2011 that put the region under military control to contain Boko Haram’s insurgency, the area has lacked a formal police presence. The sometimes heavy-handed tactics of the military have deepened the distrust of state security that existed even before Boko Haram. The situation is further complicated by the emergence of armed, poorly regulated community vigilante groups whose future role is uncertain.

As active fighting recedes in northeast Nigeria, state, federal and local authorities need to map out a coordinated approach for the return of security to civilian control. The government—at all levels—must help build community relationships with a redeployed police force that can withstand continuing sporadic assaults by a weakened Boko Haram.

Regardless of whether the sale is finalized and the planes delivered, community-level security and civilian protection will be the most important elements in the campaign to fully—and finally—eradicate the danger posed by Boko Haram.

Related Publications

The Latest: Three Things to Know About the U.S.-Africa Security Partnership

The Latest: Three Things to Know About the U.S.-Africa Security Partnership

Thursday, June 22, 2023

By: Oluwafemi Gbadebo;  Stanley Makgohlo

USIP’s African Diplomat Seminar offers newly arrived diplomats a chance to connect with the U.S. policymakers, agencies and departments working on advancing U.S.-Africa policy. Stanley Makgohlo, political counselor at the South African Embassy, and Oluwafemi Gbadebo, minister in the Nigerian Embassy, discuss how the seminar has helped their work at the nexus of peace and development and how the growing U.S.-Africa partnership can help address the challenges facing their country.

Type: Blog

Global Policy

Disengaging and Reintegrating Violent Extremists in Conflict Zones

Disengaging and Reintegrating Violent Extremists in Conflict Zones

Tuesday, May 16, 2023

By: Andrew Glazzard

Dealing with people who leave violent extremist groups has become one of the most pressing security issues of our time. Drawing on new primary research conducted by the author in Iraq, Syria, and Nigeria, and existing research on disengagement and reintegration, this report underscores the challenges of administering rehabilitation programs in conditions of chronic insecurity—and of doing so at a scale sufficient to make a difference to hundreds or even thousands of people in short order.

Type: Peaceworks

Violent Extremism

After Nigeria’s Elections: Nurturing the Seeds of Better Democracy

After Nigeria’s Elections: Nurturing the Seeds of Better Democracy

Thursday, April 13, 2023

By: Chris Kwaja

Nigeria’s latest elections heighten the country’s need for a reset of its democracy. Nigeria’s two dominant parties abandoned an informal pact that has rotated power between north and south, papering over the deeper, wider problem of ensuring real political inclusion among Nigeria’s disparate regions and communities. The recent national and state-level votes failed to deliver anguished Nigerians the promise of wider voter participation and transparent election results. Still, the campaigns and voting contained seeds for critical change that now must be cultivated by Nigeria’s newly elected government; its courageous, pro-democracy civil society; its vast, energized youth population; and its partners.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

Nigeria’s Vote Signals Risks: How Its Partners Can Support Democracy

Nigeria’s Vote Signals Risks: How Its Partners Can Support Democracy

Thursday, March 9, 2023

By: James Rupert

Nigeria’s disputed election 12 days ago is raising protest at home and concern abroad over its implications for the strength of democracy in that country and across Africa. Yesterday’s new wrinkle was the postponement of this week’s planned election for Nigerian state governors. Nigeria’s electoral commission is working to fix problems in a vote management system that failed to transparently process and report a result on February 25. An erosion of democracy’s credibility in Africa’s most populous nation would be catastrophic.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Elections & Conflict

View All Publications