At each stop on President Trump’s recent visit to the Middle East—Riyadh, Jerusalem and Bethlehem—he reiterated his seriousness about moving forward on Middle East peace. The theme continued in his visit to the Vatican, where the Pope gave the President a small sculpted olive tree and told his guest: “It is my desire that you become an olive tree to construct peace."

Trump and Pope
Photo Courtesy of The New York Times/Evan Vucci

The success of the trip and the stated willingness by all parties to show good will on behalf of peace opens a window of opportunity, but likely only one. It is difficult to imagine a better alignment of leadership and will—and, frankly, a fear of disappointing him. If Trump does not keep up the momentum, he will not be able to simply return to it a year or two later. 

The Administration has offered little detail on what the next steps might be. One of the things that has doomed past efforts is moving into talks before forcing the parties to prepare the ground politically with their constituents. Israelis, Palestinians and key Arab leaders have political demons that they have allowed to grow and, in some cases, actively nourished. If they are not able or willing to contain these demons, any negotiation becomes an exercise in futility -- waiting for the process to end and returning to an ever-deteriorating status quo.

Before embarking on closed bilateral talks, an international conference or even terms of reference, it would be useful—and reasonable—to make a politically difficult “ask” of each of the parties. But it would require them to take risks, possibly including political realignments that would be more conducive to peace.  

For Israel, it could be a fresh, publicly articulated commitment to a Palestinian state as an end goal, with tangible action to curb settlements. Palestinians could affirm their commitment to a two-state goal, clarifying the 1988 formulation of Israel and Palestine living side by side in peace and security, while denouncing violence and taking concrete steps to end incitement against Israel.

The Arab Quartet could reaffirm its commitment to two states and normalized relations with Israel, as laid out in the Arab Peace Initiative. Further, it could make meaningful gestures in advance of a final agreement, as part of an agreed process of coordinated confidence building.

Trump has appeared reluctant to use the term two-state solution, deferring to a formula of “what both parties like.” If the Israelis and Palestinians do both commit to this goal, that would be a good time for the U.S. to reassert its own pledge.

These pledges would advance the cause of peace, even if this were as far as it went in the near term, by not foreclosing options and preparing their populace for an eventual deal.

The road to peace will be paved with political shifts, compromise and, more than anything else, leadership. The sooner that leadership materializes, the more likely there will be a real societal shift of the kind that will make peace possible.     

Related Publications

What Does the U.N. Cease-Fire Resolution Mean for the Israel-Gaza War?

What Does the U.N. Cease-Fire Resolution Mean for the Israel-Gaza War?

Tuesday, March 26, 2024

By: Robert Barron

On March 25, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed Resolution 2728, calling for an “immediate” cease-fire in Gaza. The motion’s passage came after weeks of back and forth and posturing among the UNSC’s permanent and rotating members. The exact phrasing of the resolution and its relevance to the situation on the ground, as well as bilateral and multilateral relations — particularly U.S.-Israel ties — have been the subject of heavy public and media attention since Monday, raising questions about the resolution’s subtext, intent and limitations. USIP’s Robert Barron looks at these questions.

Type: Question and Answer

Global PolicyPeace Processes

Plan for Gaza’s Future Highlights the Challenges That Lie Ahead

Plan for Gaza’s Future Highlights the Challenges That Lie Ahead

Thursday, February 29, 2024

By: Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen

The document that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented to his security cabinet for discussion on February 22 may be his first formal articulation of a postwar plan for Gaza, but is largely a compilation of views that have been expressed publicly over the past few months. Accordingly, it offers few surprises, but could deepen tensions between Israel on one side and the United States and regional stakeholders on the other. 

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Six Dilemmas Facing Egypt

Six Dilemmas Facing Egypt

Thursday, January 18, 2024

By: Ambassador Hesham Youssef

Since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, Egypt has been heavily involved in efforts to end the military confrontations and wars that have periodically broken out in Gaza. However, the scope, scale and stakes of the current war is unlike any prior round of hostilities. In response to the massacre and hostage-taking of mostly Israeli civilians by Hamas and other militant armed groups during their devastating attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Israel has launched one of the most destructive wars in its history. Indeed, this war will be transformational in numerous ways, with ramifications for several stakeholders beyond the parties themselves.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

A Slippery Slope? U.S., U.K. Launch Strikes on Iran-Backed Houthis in Yemen

A Slippery Slope? U.S., U.K. Launch Strikes on Iran-Backed Houthis in Yemen

Friday, January 12, 2024

By: Sarhang Hamasaeed

On January 12, the United States and the United Kingdom, supported by Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands, launched military strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen in response to the group’s attacks on civilian and military ships in the Red Sea. The U.S.-led strikes are a significant escalation and part of the growing regional impact of the Israel-Hamas war, which the United States has been actively trying to prevent from turning into a regional war.

Type: AnalysisQuestion and Answer

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

View All Publications