Some experts predicted that the Arab rebellions which began in spring 2011 would widen the strategic and political gap between Arab states undergoing dramatic change and those defending the status quo. Dr. Adeed Dawisha argues that in fact, sectarian tensions and economic constraints have dampened the demonstration effect of the Arab uprisings on regional politics and transformation.

Read the event coverage, USIP-Wilson Center Series on Arab Spring Impacts Concludes

This meeting wass co-sponsored by the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center and the U.S. Institute of Peace.

Some experts predicted that the “Arab spring” rebellions would widen the strategic, political, and even ideological gap between Arab states undergoing dramatic change and those defending the status quo.  In fact, no such clear breach has occurred. Instead, Dr. Adeed Dawisha, distinguished professor of political science at Miami University, argues that sectarian tensions and economic constraints have dampened the potentially “incendiary” effect of the Arab political revolts. On June 12, from 10:00am to 11:300am, USIP hosted an engaging off-the-record discussion on these dynamics in the Middle East with Dr. Dawisha, the State Department’s Dafna Rand, and USIP’s Daniel Brumberg.

This event was the fifth in a series of five papers and presentations on “Reshaping the Strategic Culture of the Middle East.”

Speakers

  • Adeed Dawisha, Presenter
    Distinguished Professor of Political Science, Miami University

  • Dafna Rand, Discussant
    Member of Policy Planning Staff, U.S. Department of State        

  • Daniel Brumberg, Moderator
    Senior Adviser, Center for Conflict Management, U.S. Institute of Peace

Related Publications

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

For over three decades, every Chinese foreign minister’s first overseas trip of the year has been to Africa. This year continued the tradition with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, visiting Egypt, Tunisia, Togo and Côte d'Ivoire. Notably, every one of these countries is coastal. And yet, at a time of continued speculation over China’s next military installation in Africa, none of these countries has featured prominently as potential locations in previous analyses. We might, therefore, reasonably ask what China’s current considerations are around basing in Africa. Faced with an increasingly multipolar and assertive Africa at a time of domestic economic challenge, however, China’s long-term strategy remains unclear.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

The Current Situation in Tunisia

The Current Situation in Tunisia

Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Tunisia’s transition to democracy remains incomplete and under stress. Since the presidential measures to suspend the parliament, dismiss the government and draft a new constitution were enacted in 2021, socioeconomic conditions have continued to deteriorate, and risks of unrest have increased. Meanwhile, the ambitions of the 2011 revolution for rule of law, accountability, economic prosperity and human dignity are far from being realized. USIP works with Tunisians to improve national and local governance and security, rebuild trust and strengthen civil society.

Type: Fact Sheet

Overcoming the Challenges of Transitional Mobilization

Overcoming the Challenges of Transitional Mobilization

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Nonviolent action can be a powerful way to bring about peaceful transitions from autocratic rule to democracy. But even when initially successful, movement leaders often face significant challenges, from frustrations that grievances are not addressed quickly enough to counterrevolutions aimed at restoring the authoritarian status quo. This report examines two recent transitions—the 2011 Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia and Armenia’s 2018 Velvet Revolution—and presents recommendations for improving the likelihood that change initiated through nonviolent action leads to robust and lasting democracy.

Type: Peaceworks

Nonviolent Action

View All Publications