When announcing the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in April 2021, President Joe Biden identified counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan as an enduring and critical U.S. national security interest. To support this priority, USIP brought together a group of bipartisan experts on counterterrorism and South Asia to assess terrorist threats from South and Central Asia, as well as propose policy options that could help mitigate threats and safeguard U.S. interests while being compatible with the overall U.S. policy focus on strategic competition.

USIP Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan

The USIP Senior Study Group on Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan evaluated threats from Afghanistan and Pakistan and developed options for a sustainable counterterrorism strategy that could effectively mitigate existing threats, especially those directed against the U.S. homeland and its allies and partners. While reflecting on the past 20 years of counterterrorism efforts in the region, the group also evaluated tradeoffs of counterterrorism policy options and strategic competition.

The study group came to two main conclusions on the stakes and direction of the terrorist threat and the strategic policy options for the United States. First, rather than considering counterterrorism as an unwelcome distraction from strategic competition, policymakers could recalibrate their focus on counterterrorism to mitigate threats and shield the strategic competition agenda.

A potential terrorist attack would be costly for U.S. strategic interests — risking a tragic loss of life, as well as a shock that could divert U.S. resources and attention away from other national security interests, particularly the Indo-Pacific Strategy. Attacks against U.S. allies and partners also risk undermining U.S. assurances and sparking a wider escalation in the region.

The second conclusion that the study group reached is that terrorist threats to U.S. interests from Afghanistan and Pakistan are steadily rising — and Afghanistan presents growing space for terrorist groups compared to the period before the U.S. withdrawal. ISIS-K presents a rising threat with reach beyond the immediate region, greater than during the pre-withdrawal period. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorist group has also returned as a regional security threat. While the worst-case scenario concerning al-Qaeda’s reconstitution in Afghanistan has not materialized, that group and its South Asia affiliate continue to maintain ties with and receive support from the Taliban and to call for attacks against U.S. citizens, allies, partners (including India) and U.S. interests. In addition, the Taliban’s provision of sanctuary to terrorist groups and their promotion of extremist ideologies also present a counterterrorism challenge.

Based on these two conclusions, the study group’s final report evaluated and put forth policy options to mitigate terrorist threats and safeguard U.S. interests in Afghanistan and Pakistan, while maintaining the current focus on strategic competition.