Curbing U.S. involvement abroad was a signal campaign promise of the new U.S. Adminis­tration. Anything that smacked of nation-building drew the sharpest criticism. The appeal to many voters of such disengagement is understandable and the view is woven into an evolving foreign policy.

Students protest at the American University of Cairo, demanding a cap to their tuition, in Cairo, Nov. 16, 2016. The demonstrations are the largest and longest-running at the elite institution in years. “When the economic crisis hits the elite, it means the suffering is all over the place,” said Malak Rostom, vice president of the student union. (David Degner/The New York Times)
Students protest at the American University of Cairo, demanding a cap to their tuition, in Cairo, Nov. 16, 2016. Photo Courtesy of The New York Times/ David Degner

The problem is that the Ameri­cans’ withdrawal will almost certainly foster a level of disorder likely to pull the United States back in later and at a greater cost, damag­ing American interests that can only be advanced by peace and stability.

Nowhere is that more clearly the case than in North Africa. From Egypt to Morocco, the region’s countries are struggling with terror­ism, radicalisation, socioeconomic stagnation, ineffective governance and corruption.

Obviously, building the resil­ience of those societies must be an indigenous effort first and foremost but the role of the United States is indispensable in supporting local, regional and international efforts to break existing and prospective cycles of violence. Even where local actors are most effective in driving changes that deter extremism, they generally lack the capacity to do so without international support, the cornerstone of which comes from the United States.

Libya’s collapse illustrates how an internal violent conflict can affect regional and international security.

As multiple militias and factions vie for power in the absence of a working central government, a safe haven opened for terrorists fleeing Iraq and Syria, who join extrem­ist groups in Libya. Although the Islamic State (ISIS) was largely sup­pressed by recent military action, this diverse array of militants is establishing a pattern of operations that seems designed to expand their activities beyond Libya’s borders, posing a threat to U.S. interests and counterterrorism efforts in Africa.

The lack of a focused U.S. invest­ment in Libyan politics, which predates the new administration, encourages Russia to bolster its existing diplomatic and military presence — and later, no doubt, an economic one. Just as Syria has provided a gateway for Russia’s re­turn to the Middle East, Libya may open the way to North Africa. Last, but not least, the military conflict in Libya will add to uncertainty in energy markets for the foreseeable future.

More uncertainty could arise from developments in Egypt, the primary supplier of natural gas to American ally Jordan, and Algeria, the world’s 18th largest oil producer. Both are on the verge of a metastatic instabil­ity. A laissez-faire policy towards the two countries will help precipi­tate their descent into communal violence. Expanding radicalisation, economic hardship and the divisive policies of authoritarian leaders are causing irreversible damage, fuel­ling grudges and deepening vertical social fractures.

This offers a golden opportunity to ISIS and other extremists. The conditions are in some ways similar to Iraq in 2014 when grievances of many ordinary Iraqis bred the perception of ISIS as a valid alterna­tive to a repressive government. Most Iraqis, of course, regretted tolerating ISIS but it was too late. The world is acknowledging the high price of ignoring early warn­ings persistently conveyed by many experts, agencies and civil society organisations in 2012-14.

Tunisia has taken a more positive and constructive path than its North African peers. Certainly, the country faces colossal political, economic and social challenges that feed the scourge of home-grown and transnational terrorism. However, Tunisia’s unique example in the Middle East and North Africa of an indigenous national dialogue dif­fusing a political crisis, as occurred in 2013, presents a model for how locally owned conflict-management mechanisms contribute to peace and security.

Likewise, Tunisia’s combined secular-Islamist government and parliament demonstrates the suc­cess of inclusive political settle­ments, a relevant lesson to coun­tries in North Africa and beyond on how to manage political, religious or ethnic diversity. Consistent and generous support for Tunisia’s ailing economy is crucial to the country in maintaining its political direction and its efforts to counter violent extremism.

In a country where 1.4 million of the 3 million citizens under 25 years of age are out of school and work, it is little wonder that thousands of young people have joined extrem­ist groups. Radicalisation is a social disease with multiple roots. It will take U.S. leadership of an interna­tional effort to support Tunisian strategies to cure it.

The challenge posed by North Africa’s instability and extremism leaves the United States with only one sound policy option to protect its interests: Increased, determined and steady political and economic support. The alternative is watching the region slip into chaos that may be impossible to reverse no matter what resources the Americans bring to bear.

Originally posted on Arab Weekly on March 26, 2017.

Related Publications

How Commemoration Can Help Unite a Divided Libya

How Commemoration Can Help Unite a Divided Libya

Thursday, August 24, 2023

By: David Wood;  Mehdi Bchir

In the al-Washishi district of Benghazi a burnt-out car stands in memorial to a slain Libyan National Army (LNA) special forces fighter, serving as a city-wide reflection of the country’s 2014-2017 civil war. The car belonged to Salem (Afareet) Al-Naili, whose father was brutally murdered, one of the many victims of terrorist violence in the city. Inspired by the personal loss of his father, Salem threw himself into the fighting in the city’s civil war and was ultimately also assassinated.

Type: Analysis

Reconciliation

Citizen State and Community Relations in Building Local Governance

Citizen State and Community Relations in Building Local Governance

Monday, August 21, 2023

By: Andrew Cheatham;  Mohamed Fortia;  Nathaniel Wilson

Since the revolution in 2011 and the toppling of the long-standing regime of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has experienced various degrees of political instability and conflict. A succession of internationally supported “transitions” have failed to bring the Libyan people a functioning state with a clear social contract based on a shared vision for the nation. This paper discusses the present challenges for good local governance as perceived by Libyan citizens and institutional actors. Through this lens, recommendations are offered for immediate, short-, and medium-term initiatives that can support the improvement of citizen relations with the three traditional arms of the state—the legislative, executive, and judicial branches.

Type: Discussion Paper

Democracy & Governance

Libya Can Move Past Its Political Deadlock, But It Will Take Work to Maintain A ‘Deal’

Libya Can Move Past Its Political Deadlock, But It Will Take Work to Maintain A ‘Deal’

Friday, May 19, 2023

By: Andrew Cheatham

Since 2012, multiple failed political transitions have taken their toll on the Libyan people. The continued and increasingly complex internal divisions and external vectors affecting Libya threaten to send it into another spiral of crisis and violence. Local and national leaders working in good faith to stabilize the country have inevitably grown cynical as ruling elites and their international partners fail to deliver local security and good governance.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionPeace Processes

Beyond Elections: Libya Needs Unified Institutions and Reconciliation

Beyond Elections: Libya Needs Unified Institutions and Reconciliation

Wednesday, April 26, 2023

By: Mehdi Bchir

Last week, the U.N. Security Council met to discuss its Libya mission and its new plan to end the country’s political impasse through elections. While credible polls will be a critical step in forging a path to peace, they are not a panacea for addressing this byzantine conflict’s deeply rooted drivers and the intense, bitter rivalries and factionalism that have surfaced since 2011. Indeed, previous efforts to hold elections have buckled under the weight of the intricate dynamics at play. Over a decade after the fall of Muammar Qaddafi, resolving Libya's complex conflict will require a multifaceted approach that prioritizes building trust among Libyans.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionDemocracy & Governance

View All Publications