Since gaining its independence from France in 1960, Chad has evolved from a one-party state into a multiparty regime, endured successive rebellions, and become an interventionist regional actor. Thanks to both an oil boom and corruption, segments of the Chadian elite have become very rich, but most of the population is mired in poverty. This report examines the country’s political system, which has kept President Idriss Déby in power for twenty-seven years, and the country’s recent foreign policy, which is notable for a series of regional military interventions, to assess Chad’s current and future regional role. 

Summary

  • In recent years, thanks to its military interventionism, Chad has acquired a new regional and international status. This new role gives President Idriss Déby Itno, who took power by force in 1990, global political capital and leads international partners to turn a blind eye to his country’s weak democracy.
  • Chad is still vulnerable to regional threats. Its military intervention against Boko Haram makes it a target for that extremist group, and although N’Djamena is sometimes seen as a bulwark of regional stability, its interference abroad, notably in the Central African Republic, has had a destabilizing impact.
  • An oil-producing country, Chad has been hit hard by the drop in global oil prices. The severe economic problems facing Chad, however, have deeper roots. Meanwhile, austerity measures have triggered strikes and massive protests in a country where most citizens are desperately poor.
  • The root causes of the various crises that have beset Chad have never been addressed. Déby has been able to retain his grip on the presidency thanks to an unpopular modification of the constitution in 2005 and subsequent rigged elections up to and including the contested 2016 vote.
  • Although power remains concentrated within Déby’s ethnic group, the regime has been able to co-opt elites from other regional and ethnic backgrounds.
  • The country may be plunged into crisis if arrangements are not made in advance for a Déby successor. The question of how to transfer power is made more complex because the current regime’s repressive tactics and divide-and-rule strategy have hindered the formation of a strong civilian opposition.

About the Report

This report examines Chad’s political system, which has kept President Idriss Déby in power for twenty-seven years, and recent foreign policy, which is most notable for a series of regional military interventions, to assess the impact of domestic politics on Chad’s current and future regional role—and vice versa. A joint publication of the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), the report is derived from several hundred interviews conducted in Chad, the Central African Republic, Niger, France, and other countries, between October 2015 and October 2017 as well as desk research. Unless otherwise cited, statements in this report are drawn from these interviews.

About the Authors

Jérôme Tubiana is a researcher who specializes in Chad, Sudan, and South Sudan. He has conducted numerous field research missions in conflict areas for various organizations, most notably the Small Arms Survey and the International Crisis Group. His publications include two studies on Darfur for USIP, a book on the Darfur conflict (Chroniques du Darfour, 2010), and various articles in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the London Review of Books, and Le Monde diplomatique. Marielle Debos is an associate professor in political science at the University Paris Nanterre and a member of the Institute for Social Sciences of Politics. Before her appointment at Nanterre, she was a Marie Curie fellow at the University of California, Berkeley. She is the author of Living by the Gun in Chad: Combatants, Impunity and State Formation (2016).


Related Publications

At the Sahel’s Center, Tension Rises Over Chad’s Disputed Election

At the Sahel’s Center, Tension Rises Over Chad’s Disputed Election

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

A disputed presidential election in Chad last week is making few global headlines, but poses new risks to African and international efforts to reverse the Sahel region’s spreading instability, conflict and human displacement. Chad is centered in the world’s largest belt of military rule: six nations across Africa that have suffered armed coups since 2020. Among them, Chad is the first to hold elections to restore civilian rule. But a string of setbacks to a fully credible vote has yielded a contested result that risks further domestic conflict and a narrowing of popular legitimacy for the next government, led by the incumbent transitional president, Mahamat Idriss Deby.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & Conflict

For Sahel Stability, U.S. Needs Broader, Coordinated Policy

For Sahel Stability, U.S. Needs Broader, Coordinated Policy

Thursday, March 21, 2024

As military coups and violent insurgencies have spread across Africa’s Sahel over the past decade, U.S. policy has professed to recognize and address their interconnections across the region, notably through the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership. Yet this effort remains insufficient to meet the scale and complexity of the violence and the underlying failures of governance.

Type: Analysis

Violent Extremism

A Conversation with Chadian Prime Minister Succès Masra

A Conversation with Chadian Prime Minister Succès Masra

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

Nearly three years into its transition process, Chad faces a pivotal milestone: the organization of presidential and local elections in 2024. Against a backdrop of regional turbulence and instability, the holding of credible and transparent elections in Chad will be a key test for democracy and durable peace. USIP spoke with Chad’s new Prime Minister Succès Masra on pathways to strengthen civic space and political participation ahead of Chad’s general elections and how Chad’s transition might inform other political transitions throughout Africa.

Type: Blog

Democracy & GovernancePeace Processes

Senior Study Group for the Sahel: Final Report and Recommendations

Senior Study Group for the Sahel: Final Report and Recommendations

Thursday, January 18, 2024

The United States has not traditionally viewed the Sahel as a region of vital interest, whether in terms of security or from an economic or business perspective. This has led to a pattern of reactive involvement shaped by the circumstances of specific events rather than proactive commitments. This pattern reveals the lack of a comprehensive strategy for the volatile Western Sahel region, which includes Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. In April 2022, President Joe Biden announced that the US government would advance the “U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability” in coastal West Africa by prioritizing a partnership with Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, and Togo.

Type: Report

Civilian-Military RelationsDemocracy & GovernancePeace ProcessesViolent Extremism

View All Publications