Russia Scuttles a Food Supply System

On July 17, Russia announced it would not renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which has let Ukraine’s wheat and corn reach global food markets. Established in July 2022, the deal was a U.N.-Turkish initiative to help alleviate global food shortages caused by Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine. With Ukraine producing fully 10 percent of the wheat and corn exported to world markets before the war, Russia’s 2022 invasion, and shutdown of the Black Sea export route, vaulted wheat and other food prices to record highs, deepening food crises facing an estimated 345 million people across 82 countries, according to U.N. estimates.

In response, the international community forged a deal to provide security for ships crossing the Black Sea with Ukrainian grain. Under U.N., Turkish, Ukrainian and Russian supervision, Ukraine managed to ship almost 33 million metric tons of grain to global markets, stabilizing prices that had caused hardship and hunger in the world’s poorest countries.

Announcing its decision to abandon the agreement, Russia argued that the grain deal had really benefitted only the well-off. That argument is patently false. The International Rescue Committee, among others, noted vital supplies from the deal shipped “to countries at risk of famine, such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Yemen.” Beyond that, Secretary of State Antony Blinken pointed out correctly that “every shipment under the Initiative has contributed to reducing hardship in the world’s poorest countries, since bringing grain to world markets lowers food prices for all.” Because grain is fungible, Putin’s new actions will raise food costs worldwide. For example, the 8 million tons of Ukrainian grain shipped to China allowed that tonnage, which China would have purchased from elsewhere, to go to other countries. The more grain in the global food market, the more grain there is for all people. Putin’s sudden new blockade of Ukrainian grain, if sustained, means that vital food supplies will simply rot and feed no one.

Putin is redoubling his assault on food supplies with a sudden new wave of missile and aerial drone attacks on Ukrainian grain storage and transport infrastructure in its ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Mikolayiv. In addition, Russia announced that it now considers any ship heading to or from Ukrainian ports a legitimate target for attack. These acts have suddenly and significantly increased food prices. The international community is scrambling to figure out how to get food to the world’s neediest people.

Russia’s Unclear Motives

Russia says it has acted because parts of the grain initiative meant to help Russian agriculture have been ignored. This includes Russian demands to allow its state-run agricultural bank to access the international SWIFT payments system. Western countries excluded Russia from the SWIFT network last year in response to Russia’s assault on Ukraine.

U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres points out that, while some obstacles still remain to Russian agricultural trade, the United Nations developed a “a bespoke payments mechanism … outside of SWIFT” for Russia. Russian authorities themselves have acknowledged, Guterres said July 17, “Russian grain trade has reached high export volumes and fertilizer markets are stabilizing with Russian exports nearing full recovery.” In other words, Russian agriculture has also benefited from this agreement.

Putin is acting at a moment of many uncertainties within his regime, following last month’s mutiny by the Wagner Group mercenary force, and subsequent opaque movements among Wagner personnel and Russian military commanders. Indeed his effective assault on grain supplies will be costly for his long campaign to woo the so-called Global South into supporting Russia, for example, in their U.N. votes on periodic resolutions against its war. Particularly awkward is that Putin is to host dozens of African heads of state in St. Petersburg next week for the second annual Russia-Africa Summit. With several countries in Africa heavily dependent upon grain imports, Russian leaders will be hard pressed to justify their cutoff of Ukrainian grain exports. If Russian statements so far are any indication, the Kremlin will try to explain away the consequences of its actions by accusing Europe and other rich countries of profiting from Ukrainian grain trade. These arguments should be firmly challenged and debunked.

Next Steps

Countries and institutions supporting Ukraine and the international rule of law against Putin’s violence have no single solution to this new escalation. But for starters, the role of European states will be vital. With the Black Sea cut off as an export route, the rails, roads and ports of Ukraine’s Eastern European neighbors are the only alternative — a logistically more difficult and costly one. Five such nations — Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia — vowed this week to help move Ukrainian grain to world markets while promising their own farm lobbies not to undercut domestic prices by buying Ukrainian stocks themselves.

Germany and its European partners are already working on a plan. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told the press today that she and other European diplomats are exploring rail options to transport Ukraine’s grain. But the greater cost of those efforts means that, to keep food supplies more available to countries from Haiti to Guinea, Malawi, South Sudan and others, there is no real alternative to pressing the Kremlin to stop its political and military assault on grain and the ships that transport it.