Almost 30 months into Vladimir Putin’s brutalization of Ukraine with a full-scale invasion that has pulverized vast swaths of its farmlands, towns and cities, Ukrainians have surprised Putin and the world by driving the war back into Russia — a move that, if nothing else, has altered the current narrative around this conflict. Ukraine has again brandished its determination, initiative and innovation, effectively resetting assumptions in its defense against its much larger attacker. The possible outcomes of Ukraine’s strike remain varied and unpredictable — and its eventual implications will rest on the evolutions of several questions, both military and political.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

On July 28, Venezuela held one of the most consequential elections in its history. The country’s political opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado, overcame popular disillusionment, political divides and a rigged electoral system to earn a landslide victory for its unity candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia. According to one civil society group, estimates “extrapolated from the official vote count receipts” from a representative sample of local voting centers give González 66% of the vote. Venezuela’s opposition met the moment with an inspired pro-democracy campaign.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance;  Mediation, Negotiation & Dialogue;  Nonviolent Action

One of Africa’s longest wars shifted toward a conclusion in July when France recognized Morocco’s claim of sovereignty over the Western Sahara. That action, alongside Morocco’s military advantage, effectively will leave the indigenous Sahrawi independence movement with no choice but to eventually settle for some form of autonomy within Morocco. While this reality will be unsatisfactory for the estimated 173,000 Sahrawis living in refugee camps, their best option, and that of their backer, Algeria, is now to seize the opportunity to negotiate for best-possible peace terms with Morocco. Ending a war that keeps so many stateless and living in squalor while also removing a major irritant to the Moroccan-Algerian relationship will improve regional stability.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention;  Global Policy

In January, Fiji police seized more than four tons of methamphetamine during two raids in Nadi, marking one of the largest drug seizures in the country’s history. But while Fiji police made the seizure, they weren’t working alone. Such a significant law enforcement operation would not have been possible without the immense multi-jurisdictional, cross-border coordination between Fiji’s police, the Australian Federal Police and the Pacific Transnational Crime Coordination Centre.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention;  Global Policy

The resistance’s capture of the northern city of Lashio on August 3 marks a watershed moment in Myanmar’s conflict. After a month of fierce fighting, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and allied resistance forces captured this crucial stronghold in northern Shan State, dealing a severe blow to the beleaguered junta. This represents more than just the loss of a major city. It is the first time that a military regional command has been captured by resistance forces.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention