In the wake of Lebanon forming a new government, USIP assesses how the country can ensure ongoing political progress and stability.
This USIPeace Briefing was written by Mona Yacoubian, a special adviser for the Muslim World Initiative at the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevent at the United States Institute of Peace.
Iran’s ballistic missile strikes on Israel on October 1 have raised fears of an all-out war in the Middle East. The deepening spiral of bloodshed began on September 17 and 18 with the detonation across Lebanon of thousands of pagers and two-way radios used by Hezbollah operatives — one analyst deemed the unprecedented Israeli operation “the most extensive physical supply chain attack in history.” Ongoing airstrikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon have marked the most significant Israeli barrage in 11 months of tit-for-tat escalation. On September 27, Israel dealt Hezbollah a devastating blow by killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on a Beirut suburb. Despite reeling from these latest reverses and the evisceration of its command structure, the Shiite militia continues to lob missiles at Israel. Stunned and outraged, Iran — Hezbollah’s patron — fired around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel; at least one person was killed in the West Bank. Iranians are now bracing for Israeli retaliation. The cycle of violence, it appears, is far from over.
Two weeks ago, Israel announced that halting Hezbollah attacks had become an official goal of its post-October 7 war effort. Since then, Israel conducted a sophisticated clandestine attack on Hezbollah’s communications infrastructure and struck numerous Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the suburbs of Beirut, killing many of Hezbollah’s senior leaders. Then, on Friday, an Israeli airstrike assassinated Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who led the group for over 30 years.
Tensions between Israel and the Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah are at their highest point since their 2006 war. They have exchanged tit-for-tat attacks since October, displacing tens of thousands from northern Israel and southern Lebanon. But in recent weeks, both sides have escalated the violence and rhetoric. USIP’s Mona Yacoubian looks at what’s driving this escalation, what each side is trying to tell the other and the diplomatic efforts underway to lower the temperature.
Tension between Washington and Tehran has been a growing undercurrent of the war in Gaza, even as both countries tried to prevent it from sparking a direct confrontation during the first six months of fighting. Robin Wright, a joint fellow at USIP and the Wilson Center, explores the evolving flashpoints in the world’s most volatile region as well as the challenges for U.S. diplomacy, the new triggers for a wider regional conflagration and the historical backdrop.