November 23, 2011

Former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States Maleeha Lodhi spoke candidly about the future of Pakistan and what’s next for the country at an event Nov. 18 at USIP headquarters in Washington. As the second-largest Muslim country in the world, and one with a nuclear arsenal, Pakistan’s leaders are contending with a dire economic crisis and enduring security problems as a weak government attempts a return to civilian rule. Lodhi spoke of a number of factors that she sees as either reflecting the “extreme uncertainty” of Pakistan’s future – or a reason for hope.

PAKISTAN GOVERNANCE: POLICY, NOT PATRONAGE – The Pakistani people continue to be disappointed with the government as it tries to make the transition from military to civilian rule, said Lodhi. Legacy thinking, either by habit or design, plagues the transition and weakens its credibility. “I think there is disappointment with dysfunctional politics, which continue to pivot around patronage, not policy,” she said. Political leaders worry more about the “distribution of patronage” than on giving Pakistanis the government they deserve, she said.

ACCOUNTABILITY COUNTS – The “structures of accountability” are evolving as the transition from military to civilian rule takes form, Lodhi said. The judiciary, she says, and the broadcast media in particular, have special roles in this regard. “The role [the broadcast media] have been playing is very positive,” she said. But the response from the government is not what it should be, she said. If the media highlight an area of corruption, for example, and it’s legitimate, then the government’s response should be to call for an investigation. Oftentimes, various levels of Pakistani government simply wait for the issue to fade from the headlines. “So you keep your head down, let the crisis blow over, but you don’t really respond,” Lodhi said, explaining the government’s typical response.

CRICKET AND POLITICAL CHANGE – The recent rally in Lahore, led by cricket player-turned-political activist Imran Khan, was significant because it reflected the “widespread yearning for political change,” Lodhi said. Even critics of the rally described it as “mammoth and animated,” she said, and with energy. One of the biggest takeaways from the rally was the degree to which the urban middle class, which has long sat on the sidelines, participated. “It shows we do have a larger, more assertive middle class that wants a greater political voice in Pakistan’s governance and in Pakistan’s politics,” she said. The demand for change, among the so-called youth bulge and other groups “should not be underestimated,” she said.

“Whether or not Imran Khan is successful in transforming himself from a celebrity to a serious political leader, we don’t know. It’s in the early days, but what he’s already done is crystallize some of the changes that were already under way in society, bring them to the fore, and they’re out there.”

ON INDIA AND PAKISTAN’S EASTERN BORDER – There are distinct signs that the relationship between Pakistan and it’s eastern neighbor are on the mend, even if there is far more trust-building that must occur. “It’s a positive development,” she said, adding that increased trade and other positive interaction is a good sign. “Normalization would be premature, but the intent on both sides is to get back on track.”

THE GREATEST, IMMEDIATE THREAT – The biggest challenge to Pakistan’s future doesn’t come from militancy but from the deepening economic crisis and the economy may be headed into “a certain, perfect storm” unless specific policy actions are made now, she said.

THE FIGHT AGAINST MILITANCY – Pakistan’s work against militants is at a “delicate juncture,” Lodhi said. On one side there is a lot of work to be done, on the other, she said, much has been done. Pakistan has been engaged, almost continuously, and “virtually non-stop,” she said, and has achieved “fragile gains.” In some areas, the military feels as if it has transitioned to the “build” phase of the traditional “clear, hold, build” strategy of counterinsurgency. In others, the military believes it is not yet in a position to make that transition and is still fighting.

RESETTING U.S.-PAKISTANI RELATIONS –Meanwhile, two looming issues affect Pakistan’s own military operations: the U.S.-Pakistani relations overall and the endgame in Afghanistan. This has been a “roller coaster year” between U.S. and Pakistan, including the targeting of Osama bin Laden and other problems that has contributed to the tumult in the relationship. “Each crisis has not led to a re-set,” she said. “There’s been the kind of brinkmanship in managing this relationship which has left ties between our two countries damaged after every crisis, with trust eroded.” Without repairing the trust between the two countries, “it’s simply not going to work,” she said.

Explore Further

• Where is Pakistan Headed?
  USIP Event | November 18, 2011
• Countries and Continents: Pakistan