USIP’s Dan Brumberg provides updated analysis of the current crisis in Egypt. Are there parrallels between Iran’s Green Revolution and the protest in Tunisia? Will Egypt's military take a side?

January 31, 2011

USIP’s Dan Brumberg provides updated analysis of the current crisis in Egypt.

Everyone is talking about and tweeting about the role of social networking in the Egypt crisis. Is there a risk that we overdo it and make the Internet too omnipotent and over estimate its potential to cause a revolution?

The Internet created the crucial medium through which young Egyptians were able to envision a collective challenge to the regime: safety in numbers. The regime has always counted on apathy, but the images of self-empowerment had a galvanizing and snowball effect.

But, this dynamic of collective action is a necessary but far from sufficient condition: a democratic revolution will require leadership, and it will require a capacity of Islamists and non-Islamists to hammer out a common vision of reform -- a process that itself demands leadership. The Internet can help in this regard, but is not crucial.

Moreover, ultimately, to move from rebellion to revolution you need the Egyptian army to defect. Certainly mass mobilization may increase this prospect, because it raises the cost of repression. If the Internet has helped facilitate that mobilization in ways that have perhaps changed the calculus of the military (which is yet to be seen), that calculus will ultimately be driven by other fundamental considerations within the military.

So the Internet is important, but it is not the silver bullet to the heart of Egyptian autocracy.

Back to Top

 

Are there parallels between Iran’s Green Revolution and what has happened in Tunisia and now in Egypt? They are all different cases, but are there similarities? If so, why hasn’t the Iran situation sustained in changing the regime?

The Green Revolution represents, for the most part, the mass mobilization of the urban middle classes in Iran. I would say the same thing applies to Egypt. Moreover, in both cases, education and development, under the umbrella of autocratic states, have done much to enlarge this middle class.

But the political systems are very different: there is a far more elaborate system of mobilization and control in Iran, and what is more, it is blessed and enforced by a kind of semi-theocracy led by a Supreme Leader whose authority, he claims (and not a few Iranians believe) comes from God. This religious base of authority remains a serious impediment to democratization. Moreover, and moving from this previous point, while Iran's leaders face many opponents, they have used state institutions to sustain a base among the rural and urban poor. Furthermore, they have at their disposal, not the military, but a mass praetorian guard – The Revolutionary Guard and “Basij" whose numbers, in the millions, can be mobilized quickly. So there are simply huge internal constraints in Iran.

Finally, Iran lacks the external constraints present in Egypt. Furthermore, Mubarak is an ally of the U.S. This could work both ways, depending on how the U.S. plays it. if the U.S. presses the Egyptian army to do the right thing, the process may move forward in Egypt. We have no similar influence in Iran, obviously.

Back to Top

 

If the military takes over—does that bode well or poorly for the aims of the protesters?

IF the military should support the protesters, that is crucial. If they support the regime, the game could be over pretty soon. It is not a matter of taking over: it is a matter of whose side the military takes.

Back to Top

Additional Perspectives

Back to Top


Related Publications

Five Factors Shaping the Future of Egypt-Israel Relations

Five Factors Shaping the Future of Egypt-Israel Relations

Thursday, June 13, 2024

The Gaza war has strained Egyptian-Israeli relations to an unprecedented level and raised questions about the future of their 1979 peace treaty that has been a cornerstone of Arab-Israeli peace. U.S. officials met recently in Cairo with their Israeli and Egyptian counterparts against a backdrop of mutually diminishing confidence between the two parties, particularly following Israel’s ground offensive in Rafah. This comes on the heels of a shooting incident between Israeli and Egyptian forces that left at least one Egyptian soldier dead, and Egypt joining South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Along with Qatar, Egypt is a key broker in the current Israel-Hamas cease-fire efforts and engages in extensive security cooperation with the U.S. and Israel.

Type: Question and Answer

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

For over three decades, every Chinese foreign minister’s first overseas trip of the year has been to Africa. This year continued the tradition with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, visiting Egypt, Tunisia, Togo and Côte d'Ivoire. Notably, every one of these countries is coastal. And yet, at a time of continued speculation over China’s next military installation in Africa, none of these countries has featured prominently as potential locations in previous analyses. We might, therefore, reasonably ask what China’s current considerations are around basing in Africa. Faced with an increasingly multipolar and assertive Africa at a time of domestic economic challenge, however, China’s long-term strategy remains unclear.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Six Dilemmas Facing Egypt

Six Dilemmas Facing Egypt

Thursday, January 18, 2024

Since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, Egypt has been heavily involved in efforts to end the military confrontations and wars that have periodically broken out in Gaza. However, the scope, scale and stakes of the current war is unlike any prior round of hostilities. In response to the massacre and hostage-taking of mostly Israeli civilians by Hamas and other militant armed groups during their devastating attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Israel has launched one of the most destructive wars in its history. Indeed, this war will be transformational in numerous ways, with ramifications for several stakeholders beyond the parties themselves.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

How a Gaza Marine Deal Could Benefit Palestinians, Israelis and the Region

How a Gaza Marine Deal Could Benefit Palestinians, Israelis and the Region

Thursday, August 3, 2023

Amid today’s dismal Israeli-Palestinian context, positive developments have been in short supply. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s June announcement of preliminary approval for the development of the Gaza Marine gas fields provided a rare glimpse of a potential win-win opportunity. For the Palestinians, it could provide a much-needed boost to their lagging economy and the cash-strapped Palestinian Authority (PA). On the Israeli side, it allows the Netanyahu government to claim it is assisting in improving living conditions in Gaza and could lead to less U.S. pressure on issues like settlement expansion. In the big picture, this is another example of how energy is increasingly becoming a focus for potential win-win agreements in the East Mediterranean.

Type: Analysis

Economics

View All Publications