Expert Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen puts the protests in Egypt and in the region into context and discusses their historical and religious significance.

January 31, 2011

As the crisis continues to unfold in Egypt, USIP talks with Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, program officer in the Center for Mediation and Conflict Resolution. Lucy’s work focuses on the Arab-Israeli conflict and identity. She previously worked with the State Department as an Arab language specialist and has spent considerable time in Egypt.

Having lived in Egypt and studied Egyptian politics, are there things that surprise you, politically, about this crisis; either its speed or how it is unfolding?

One thing that is not surprising to me about the events unfolding in Egypt is the breadth and depth of discontent that Egyptians harbor toward their government. For the better part of a decade, protesters and activists have voiced dissatisfaction and anger with repressive policies, widening economic gaps, and a lack of movement towards democracy. The Mubarak government – specifically through the police force and other internal security agents – swiftly and effectively put down these protests, up through last week. What has been surprising to watch unfold over the past few days is the floundering of the Egyptian government in the face of these “post-Tunisia” protests.

The boldness of the protesters and lack (at least initially) of the heavy-handed response many of us have expected seems to signal that the emperor is quickly being disrobed. Whatever else one may say about Hosni Mubarak, we have counted for three decades on his being able to keep the most populous and most powerful Arab country under tight and stable control. As of today, at least, it appears he is losing his grip. Of course, with a situation this fluid, observations have a short shelf-life. Tomorrow, there could be a new government (or no government at all), or a massive and bloody crackdown.

Back to Top

 

Looking back at the past year, were there indications—signals that the West might have paid more attention to that suggested that things were unraveling?

No, I don’t think so, but first, a caveat: things are “unraveling,” I agree, but they are not yet completely “unraveled.” There could yet be a showdown to send the protesters reeling. Particularly in the absence of any organized leadership among the protesters, an aggressive display of force could nip things in the bud. But I think everyone has been caught off guard by what has transpired and continues to unfold. There seemed few signs that the government’s historic ability to channel, muzzle or monitor popular discontent, and to keep order, was compromised. If Sadat’s assassination, the fall of the Soviet Union, the toppling of Saddam Hussein, etc., failed to catalyze what we are seeing today, who would have thought that Mohamed Bouazizi setting himself on fire in Tunisia would have done it?

Back to Top

 

Additional Perspectives

Back to Top


Related Publications

Five Factors Shaping the Future of Egypt-Israel Relations

Five Factors Shaping the Future of Egypt-Israel Relations

Thursday, June 13, 2024

The Gaza war has strained Egyptian-Israeli relations to an unprecedented level and raised questions about the future of their 1979 peace treaty that has been a cornerstone of Arab-Israeli peace. U.S. officials met recently in Cairo with their Israeli and Egyptian counterparts against a backdrop of mutually diminishing confidence between the two parties, particularly following Israel’s ground offensive in Rafah. This comes on the heels of a shooting incident between Israeli and Egyptian forces that left at least one Egyptian soldier dead, and Egypt joining South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Along with Qatar, Egypt is a key broker in the current Israel-Hamas cease-fire efforts and engages in extensive security cooperation with the U.S. and Israel.

Type: Question and Answer

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Is China Eyeing a Second Military Base in Africa?

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

For over three decades, every Chinese foreign minister’s first overseas trip of the year has been to Africa. This year continued the tradition with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, visiting Egypt, Tunisia, Togo and Côte d'Ivoire. Notably, every one of these countries is coastal. And yet, at a time of continued speculation over China’s next military installation in Africa, none of these countries has featured prominently as potential locations in previous analyses. We might, therefore, reasonably ask what China’s current considerations are around basing in Africa. Faced with an increasingly multipolar and assertive Africa at a time of domestic economic challenge, however, China’s long-term strategy remains unclear.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Six Dilemmas Facing Egypt

Six Dilemmas Facing Egypt

Thursday, January 18, 2024

Since Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, Egypt has been heavily involved in efforts to end the military confrontations and wars that have periodically broken out in Gaza. However, the scope, scale and stakes of the current war is unlike any prior round of hostilities. In response to the massacre and hostage-taking of mostly Israeli civilians by Hamas and other militant armed groups during their devastating attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Israel has launched one of the most destructive wars in its history. Indeed, this war will be transformational in numerous ways, with ramifications for several stakeholders beyond the parties themselves.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

How a Gaza Marine Deal Could Benefit Palestinians, Israelis and the Region

How a Gaza Marine Deal Could Benefit Palestinians, Israelis and the Region

Thursday, August 3, 2023

Amid today’s dismal Israeli-Palestinian context, positive developments have been in short supply. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s June announcement of preliminary approval for the development of the Gaza Marine gas fields provided a rare glimpse of a potential win-win opportunity. For the Palestinians, it could provide a much-needed boost to their lagging economy and the cash-strapped Palestinian Authority (PA). On the Israeli side, it allows the Netanyahu government to claim it is assisting in improving living conditions in Gaza and could lead to less U.S. pressure on issues like settlement expansion. In the big picture, this is another example of how energy is increasingly becoming a focus for potential win-win agreements in the East Mediterranean.

Type: Analysis

Economics

View All Publications