Ethiopia
Ethiopia continues to navigate a complex political transition. The 2022 cessation of hostilities agreement silenced the guns in the devastating two-year war in Tigray. However, violent conflict persists in the Amhara and Oromo regions. Meanwhile, after a period of détente and a declaration of peace, Ethiopia’s relationship with neighboring Eritrea faces new tensions over calls for Ethiopia to have access to the Red Sea. Similarly, an agreement between Ethiopia and the Somaliland government for access to a seaport for commercial and naval purposes have escalated tensions with Somalia. USIP continues to provide training and advice to political, security and civil society leaders in Ethiopia to resolve ongoing domestic and regional conflicts without violence, including on the design and implementation of an inclusive national dialogue and related peace processes.
Featured Publications
Taking Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions Seriously
The historically fraught relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is deteriorating once again. A seemingly momentous peace deal that brought the two sides together in 2018 now appears to have been a brief interlude in a longer arc of enduring rivalry. The sources of recent tension include Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s public posturing around sea access and dynamics seeded by the 2018 peace deal itself. Neither side can afford escalation, but open conflict remains a possibility and even outcomes well short of direct hostilities — perhaps a return to the “no war, no peace” situation of preceding decades — would be disastrous for the two nations and the broader region.
Peace for Ethiopia: What Should Follow Blinken’s Visit?
Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s talks in Ethiopia and his announcement of new U.S. aid this week advance vital steps for building peace in the country and greater stability in East Africa. Yet those tasks remain arduous and will require difficult compromises on all sides in Ethiopia’s conflicts. U.S. and international policymakers face a tough calculation over how to mesh critical goals: restoring full trade and economic assistance to help Ethiopia meet its people’s needs while also pressing all sides to advance justice and reconciliation to address the atrocities committed and damage caused during the war.
Ethiopia’s civil war is raging. How can it get on track toward peace?
In August, the devastating conflict in northern Ethiopia resumed, effectively ending the March 2022 humanitarian truce between the Ethiopian federal government and Tigrayan forces, which many hoped would pave the way for a negotiated cease-fire and peace talks. This week, the African Union’s chairperson called for an immediate cease-fire and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also called on the parties to cease hostilities and participate in talks organized by the African Union. What comes next in Ethiopia will have major implications for its people, the strategically vital Red Sea arena and for U.S. interests in the region. Stepped up, senior-level U.S. engagement is direly needed to get Ethiopia on a path toward peace.
Current Projects
Women Preventing Violent Extremism (WPVE) in the Horn and Sahel
USIP’s Women Preventing Violent Extremism (WPVE) program aims to shape national policies and community approaches to countering violent extremism in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel. USIP does this by empowering women-led organizations and building local capacity that fosters collaboration between community-level activists and national-level policymakers.
Peace and Security Issues in Africa-China Economic Relations
Much of the research that has been conducted on the impact of China’s economic engagement with Africa has focused on their economic exchanges and security engagements in isolation of one another. But few have sought to understand the interconnections between these themes. These interconnections matter, as some Chinese firms are responsible for environmental degradation, population displacement, corruption and illegal extraction activities — all of which are factors that can drive conflict.