In recent years, the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have found it particularly challenging to interpret one another’s foreign policy signals. Misinterpretation of each other’s signaling may contribute to a bilateral action-reaction dynamic and can intensify into an action-reaction cycle and escalation spiral.

Type: Report

China has major energy and economic interests that are threatened by an escalating conflict. But Beijing may also see some strategic opportunities with the U.S. focused on the war. Ultimately, China is likely unwilling, and unable, to make a serious effort to broker peace.

Type: Analysis

The 2024 revelations over China’s effort to implant malware in critical U.S. infrastructure by the Volt Typhoon hacking group — as well as the Salt Typhoon group’s successful breaching of at least nine major U.S. telecoms — have renewed concern over Beijing’s constant, ongoing efforts to hack Western companies, governments and non-governmental organizations. Unlike past incidents, like those involving Chinese military unit 61398, which were largely about cyber espionage, the Volt Typhoon group was actively implanting malware designed to disrupt critical infrastructure such as water and power systems.

Type: Analysis

While India has taken a strong security stance against China, its economic posture has been cooperative. But India's reliance on Chinese imports may undermine its role as a counterbalance to China. The U.S. can help India serve as a counterweight to China by supporting Delhi’s de-risking efforts.

Type: Analysis