As Beijing ratchets up military pressure along the Strait, Taiwan remains “the one area where we are most likely to see … a direct confrontation between the United States and China” because a conflict “would affect a lot of our allies [like] Japan, South Korea and the Philippines,” says USIP’s Dean Cheng. 

Type: Podcast

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be an extremely difficult military, complex operation. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been thinking seriously since the early 2000s about what such a landing would require. For over two decades, its force development efforts have been focused on the weapons, equipment, doctrine and operational concepts required to conquer the island in the face of full U.S. military intervention. The PLA has made considerable progress toward that goal and may deem itself fully capable by the 2027 force development target set by Xi Jinping.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Since a 2020 clash between Indian and Chinese troops along their countries’ long disputed border, known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC), friction has mounted between the two Asian powers. But the two sides reached a deal in late October to de-escalate tensions. Although the details remain murky, India and China have already pulled back troops from two key flashpoint areas on the Himalayan frontier. Still, it remains to be seen what this means for the broader, frosty India-China relationship. The U.S. and India have significantly strengthened security ties in recent years, in part responding to China’s rise and aggressive behavior in the region. So, Washington will be watching closely to see what comes next.

Type: Question and Answer

Global Policy

Kiribati President Taneti Maamau, reelected last week, will probably use his third term to continue strengthening ties with China. U.S. relations with Kiribati, however, remain less well established. Since last year, the number of U.S. embassies in the Pacific Islands has leapt from six to nine, reflecting the region’s higher priority to the United States as its concerns have grown about China’s engagement. But efforts to build a U.S. embassy in Kiribati — the closest country to Hawai‘i — have stalled because of Maamau’s government.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy