The Red Sea is in crisis. At the center of the storm are Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have unleashed a wave of attacks on ships traversing one of the world’s most pivotal maritime straits, putatively in support of Hamas’s war against Israel. The Houthi gambit in the Red Sea is imposing serious costs on global trade, as did the problem of Somali piracy, which reached its peak in 2010. The United States and some of its allies have stepped in to militarily suppress the threat, bombing Houthi positions inside Yemen. But although this episode is illustrative of the difficulties of Red Sea security, the crisis extends far beyond the trouble emanating from Yemen.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

The historically fraught relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea is deteriorating once again. A seemingly momentous peace deal that brought the two sides together in 2018 now appears to have been a brief interlude in a longer arc of enduring rivalry. The sources of recent tension include Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s public posturing around sea access and dynamics seeded by the 2018 peace deal itself. Neither side can afford escalation, but open conflict remains a possibility and even outcomes well short of direct hostilities — perhaps a return to the “no war, no peace” situation of preceding decades — would be disastrous for the two nations and the broader region.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention;  Global Policy

During Ethiopia’s disastrous two-year civil conflict, women were subjected to countless acts of conflict-related sexual violence by security forces on both sides. Now that a peace process has begun, securing true transitional justice will require women’s participation and leadership throughout the negotiations. Filsan Abdi, founder director of the Horn Peace Institute, discusses her decision to resign from her prior position as Ethiopia’s minister of women, children and youth in protest of the violence, why women’s participation is so vital to the long-term success of peacebuilding and democracy in the Horn of Africa, and why the current peace process gives her hope despite its shortcomings.

Type: Blog

Gender;  Peace Processes

Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s talks in Ethiopia and his announcement of new U.S. aid this week advance vital steps for building peace in the country and greater stability in East Africa. Yet those tasks remain arduous and will require difficult compromises on all sides in Ethiopia’s conflicts. U.S. and international policymakers face a tough calculation over how to mesh critical goals: restoring full trade and economic assistance to help Ethiopia meet its people’s needs while also pressing all sides to advance justice and reconciliation to address the atrocities committed and damage caused during the war.

Type: Analysis

Peace Processes