On July 22, 2004, USIP hosted a presentation by senior fellow Ceslav Ciobanu on "Frozen and Forgotten Conflicts in Post-Soviet States." Ciobanu examined how the enlargement of NATO and expansion of the EU to include former Soviet republics has created new opportunities to manage conflicts within these states and to build security and stability among the states of the Black Sea, South Caucasus, and Caspian Sea regions.

Ceslav Ciobanu was Moldova's ambassador to the United States, Mexico, and Canada from 1999 through March 2002. He also served as Moldova's first deputy minister of foreign affairs, as minister of privatization and state property administration, and as deputy director of the president's office and economic adviser to the president. Prior to Moldova's independence, Ciobanu was a professor of economics at the Academy of Oil and Gas in Moscow, and an adviser on Central and Eastern European affairs to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev (1987–91). He has followed the conflict between Moldova and Transnistria for many years, as well as the other "frozen and forgotten" conflicts among and within the former republics of the Soviet Union—Abkhazia and South Ossetia with Georgia, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Report Summary

In Ciobanu's opening remarks he posed three important questions to the audience. First, what was the significance of the NATO Summit held in Istanbul on June 28-29, 2004, and what might its impact be on the "frozen and forgotten" conflicts in Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan? Second, what role does the Russian factor play in these conflicts? Third, what are the costs and benefits of resolving the frozen and forgotten conflicts of Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Nagorno-Karabakh?

Ciobanu stressed that resolution of the frozen and forgotten conflicts in post-Soviet countries is among the most important security issues for the Black Sea region. If left unresolved, these conflicts could pose a serious threat to the neighboring countries by becoming a fertile soil for crime, corruption, and arms proliferation. At the same time, the current status quo of "no peace, no war" reinforces the violation of human rights and hampers the development of democratic institutions and civil society in the region. However, peaceful resolution of these conflicts' remains will only be possible with increased international attention, he stressed.

Searching for Solutions

According to Ciobanu, the June NATO Summit in Istanbul was significant in the search for a solution to these conflicts because it acknowledged the importance of the Black Sea region for the Euro-Atlantic community. It addressed the issue of the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty and criticized Russia's reluctance to fulfill its obligations to withdraw all Russian troops from Transnistria. Because Russian military presence contributes significantly to keeping these conflicts frozen, Russia's involvement needs to be reassessed. In Ciobanu's words, "Russia was never just an impartial neutral observer."

While he agreed that, "only the policy of inclusion of Russia with all respective responsibilities can lead to the solution," he insisted, on the other hand, that Russia has to be, "restrained by international agreements to protect its CIS partners from 'new embraces.'" The creation and deployment of a joint NATO/EU/Russia peace consolidation task force, under the aegis of the EU/Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), to conflict zones could be a good solution to this issue.

Ciobanu then outlined three other important elements that are needed in any path leading to the successful resolution of the frozen and forgotten conflicts in the Black Sea region:

1. Development of energy resources and pipelines from the Caspian Sea, which can be beneficial to the enlarged Euro-Atlantic world both in terms of pricing and in terms of diversification of energy supplies;
2. Promotion of economic development and reforms in countries affected by ethno-political conflicts, which can reduce the pressure of socio-economic hardships that create a breeding ground for crime, extremism, and separatism; and
3. Curtailment of the vested interests of corrupt regional elites, which is another factor threatening the fragile balance of power in these zones.

Finding a Way Forward

Recapping the main challenges posed by frozen and forgotten conflicts in the region, Ciobanu concluded his presentation with several recommendations. He stressed the necessity of implementing new mechanisms for conflict resolution as the existing mechanisms that played a positive role in freezing the hot spots in the post-Soviet area were established a decade ago and have proved to be both outdated and ineffective. This, he noted, would require a new dedication of political will by Russia, the nations in the region, and the international community as a whole to resolve these regional frozen conflicts.

Ciobanu also recommended that internationalized peacekeeping forces replace the existing format where Russian forces significantly prevail. Utilizing the framework of a NATO/EU mission with the participation of a Russian contingent, to create an internationalized peacekeeping force would give peacekeeping operations more political credibility in the region, Ciobanu argued. While there should be no illusion that it would be counterproductive to marginalize Russia in such peacekeeping matters, it was important also for Russia to be held accountable by the international community for its commitments and actions.

Lastly, Ciobanu emphasized that "resolution of the conflicts in the post-Soviet states may be possible only with the support of a strong and vibrant civil society, including nongovernmental organizations, with widespread inclusion of free press, TV, and radio." He reiterated that "long-lasting resolution can be assured not only by political means, but also by economic mechanisms, i.e., conducting economic reforms, promoting fair and transparent privatization, and creating a friendly environment for loyal competition and foreign investments." The continued support of international civil society initiatives and economic development, in fact, is one of the best ways that the international community can ensure that its political and economic investment in the region comes to fruition, he argued.

In conclusion, Ciobanu stressed that in order to create a sound legal international framework and mechanism of conflict resolution, "it is necessary to take a fresh look at the set of 'sacred principles' such as state sovereignty, territorial integrity, self-determination, and human rights that are at the basis of contemporary international law and that often contradict each other." "It is important," he pointed out in closing, "to find a balanced approach to these universal principles in order to find effective mechanisms for their practical implementation in each of these conflicts."