Perennial volatility between India and Pakistan has escalated further recently along their 2,064-mile border. While the historic antagonism between the two nuclear-armed powers remains the central risk, it is playing out today amid gains by radical insurgents in Afghanistan, probing by Russia and Iran, uncertainty over U.S. policy, and rapidly evolving economic ties between Pakistan and China. On May 15, the U.S. Institute of Peace held a discussion of the region’s shifting geopolitics and ways current trends might line up with U.S. interests.

The American goal of maintaining peace and stability in South Asia faces an increasingly complex set of challenges. Mutual accusations of support for terrorism and violent incidents along the Line of Control in Kashmir have inflamed the core India-Pakistan conflict. Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan also have deteriorated over terrorism and refugees. Initiatives by Iran and Russia may have complicated moves for reconciliation in Afghanistan. 

Meanwhile, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project is realigning regional relationships and economies. The panel discussed what these developments mean for the future of the India-Pakistan relationship, and potential U.S. approaches in the region under the Trump administration.

A recording of the event can be found on this event page.

Speakers

Yaqoob Bangash
Director, Centre for Governance and Policy, Information Technology University of Lahore

Gurmeet Kanwal
Distinguished Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi

Dinshaw Mistry
Professor, Political Science and Asian Studies, University of Cincinnati

Teresita Schaffer
U.S. Ambassador, Retired

Moeed Yusuf, Moderator
Associate Vice President, Asia Center, U.S. Institute of Peace

Related Publications

At SCO, Pakistan Promotes Relevance as China Projects Influence

At SCO, Pakistan Promotes Relevance as China Projects Influence

Thursday, October 24, 2024

Last week, Pakistan hosted leaders from China, Russia, India, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Iran and Belarus for the 23rd Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. While the lead-up to the summit highlighted the constraints that Pakistan’s internal troubles place on its ability to play an active role in global diplomacy, Islamabad was able to sidestep any serious diplomatic faux pas. India’s attendance may have left a door cracked to dialogue between Pakistan and its neighboring rival.

Type: Question and Answer

Global Policy

Will the IMF’s $7 Billion Bailout Stabilize Pakistan’s Economy?

Will the IMF’s $7 Billion Bailout Stabilize Pakistan’s Economy?

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $7 billion loan for Pakistan aimed at helping the South Asian nation stabilize its economy. After assuming power earlier this year, Pakistan’s new coalition government led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) had approached the IMF for the 25th time for a loan. On September 12, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said his country had met all the conditions set by the IMF to qualify for a new loan. And on September 25, the IMF signed a formal approval of the loan.

Type: Question and Answer

Economics

Toward a Durable India-Pakistan Peace: A Roadmap through Trade

Toward a Durable India-Pakistan Peace: A Roadmap through Trade

Thursday, June 27, 2024

Despite a three-year long cease-fire along their contested border, trade and civil society engagement between India and Pakistan has dwindled, exacerbating the fragility of their relationship. With recently re-elected governments now in place in both countries, there is a window of opportunity to rekindle trade to bolster their fragile peace, support economic stability in Pakistan, create large markets and high-quality jobs on both sides, and open doors for diplomatic engagement that could eventually lead to progress on more contentious issues.

Type: Analysis

Economics

How Have India’s Neighbors Reacted to Its Election?

How Have India’s Neighbors Reacted to Its Election?

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Narendra Modi was sworn in on June 9 for his third consecutive term as India’s prime minister. Public polls had predicted a sweeping majority for Modi, so it came as some surprise that his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost ground with voters and had to rely on coalition partners to form a ruling government. Although India’s elections were fought mainly on domestic policy issues, there were important exceptions and Modi’s electoral setback could have implications for India’s regional and global policies.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

View All Publications