Menu

United States Institute of Peace

Home ▶ Events

Promoting Stable Green Transitions in Oil States

Traumatic Decarbonization and Instability in Fragile Contexts

Date: Friday, January 20, 2023 / Time: 10:00am - 11:00am EST

Center: Applied Conflict Transformation Center

Share This
Print the Page

Hydrocarbon revenue is a primary source of political finance for many fragile and conflict-afflicted countries, from Iraq and Sudan to Nigeria and Venezuela. Governance institutions in these contexts are often weak, and elites will use material rewards to strike political bargains and peace settlements. However, as countries take action to address climate change, the transition away from fossil fuels will eliminate these non-renewable sources of political finance.

This sudden shift could spark “traumatic decarbonization,” where the rapid, unplanned reduction in hydrocarbon revenues threatens the peace and security of fragile states. For transitions to green economies to succeed, international actors must prepare to avoid the harmful unintended consequences of traumatic decarbonization.

On January 20, USIP hosted a panel of experts to discuss the issue of unplanned decarbonization in Africa and the Middle East. Diverse cases, including Sudan, South Sudan, Nigeria, and Iraq, shed light on the variations in elite pacts and political economies, the different kinds of decarbonization, and their contrasting international contexts. In addition, this event explored what happens to the rules of the political game and the various ways authoritarian and kleptocratic government practices can evolve even under severe economic strain.

Continue the conversation on Twitter using #EnergySecurityUSIP.

Speakers

Lise Grande, opening remarks
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace

Jeremy Moore
Senior Program Officer, U.S. Institute of Peace

Alex de Waal
Executive Director, World Peace Foundation, Tufts University

Aditya Sarkar
Researcher, Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform

Tegan Blaine, moderator
Director, Program on Climate, Environment, and Conflict, U.S. Institute of Peace

Related Publications

How Myanmar’s Central Bank Facilitates the Junta’s Oppression

How Myanmar’s Central Bank Facilitates the Junta’s Oppression

Thursday, July 11, 2024

By: Sean Turnell

Over the three years since Myanmar’s military overthrew the county’s elected government, the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM) has emerged as a critical component of the junta’s apparatus of public oppression. It is the principal actor providing the junta — the self-styled State Administrative Council, or the SAC — with the financial resources to wage its wars, and it is the primary instrument via which the junta seeks to thwart international sanctions.

Type: Analysis

Economics

Examining the 2024 Annual Trafficking in Persons Report: Progress over Politics

Examining the 2024 Annual Trafficking in Persons Report: Progress over Politics

Monday, July 8, 2024

By: Jason Tower

Jason Tower, country director for the Burma program at the U.S. Institute of Peace, testified on July 9, 2024, before the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee Subcommittee on Global Health, Global Human Rights and International Organizations’ hearing on “Examining the 2024 Annual Trafficking in Persons Report: Progress over Politics.”

Type: Congressional Testimony

Democracy & Governance;  Economics;  Global Policy;  Human Rights

Kenya’s Crisis Shows the Urgency of African Poverty, Corruption, Debt

Kenya’s Crisis Shows the Urgency of African Poverty, Corruption, Debt

Thursday, June 27, 2024

By: Ambassador Johnnie Carson

Kenya’s public protests and deadly violence over proposed tax increases this week highlight some of the country’s most serious challenges: high youth unemployment, deepening poverty and the glaring gap between living conditions for the country’s elite and its urban poor. This social crisis is exacerbated by severe corruption, a stifling foreign debt and a too-violent response by Kenyan police, who have a poor record in handling large demonstrations. Steps to calm this crisis are vital to preserve Kenya’s overall stability, its role as an East African trade hub — and its capacity to serve as a leader for peace, which the United States increasing has relied upon in Africa and elsewhere.

Type: Analysis

Economics;  Global Policy

Toward a Durable India-Pakistan Peace: A Roadmap through Trade

Toward a Durable India-Pakistan Peace: A Roadmap through Trade

Thursday, June 27, 2024

By: Sanjay Kathuria

Despite a three-year long cease-fire along their contested border, trade and civil society engagement between India and Pakistan has dwindled, exacerbating the fragility of their relationship. With recently re-elected governments now in place in both countries, there is a window of opportunity to rekindle trade to bolster their fragile peace, support economic stability in Pakistan, create large markets and high-quality jobs on both sides, and open doors for diplomatic engagement that could eventually lead to progress on more contentious issues.

Type: Analysis

Economics

View All Publications