According to Dr. Ma'oz, since their ascendancy in 2000, relations between U.S. president George Bush and Syria’s president Bashar Asad have deteriorated significantly; and following the Iraq War in 2003, it can be argued that Washington and Damascus are on a collision course. In his project report, Dr. Ma'oz argued that through an incremental-pragmatic policy of employing “carrots” and “sticks,” the United States can ameliorate Syrian-American relations, as well as induce Syria to play a more stabilizing role in the Middle East, particularly with respect to Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Dr. Ma'oz offered historical analysis of Syrian-American relations in addition to future scenarios for confrontation and cooperation. Dr. Ma'oz’s demonstrated through a discussion of Syrian-American relations under President George H.W. Bush and President Bill Clinton that there are pre-existing patterns and lessons that could be the basis for a rapprochement between the current presidents. Today’s harsh relations are in contrast with American-Syrian working relations and strategic cooperation during the 1990s: between President Bush Sr. and President Asad Sr. regarding Gulf War I, as well as between Clinton and Asad concerning the Syrian-Israeli peace process throughout the 1990s.

However, currently the United States has a long list of grievances against President Bashar Asad, son of the late President Hafiz Asad. In the wake of 9/11, the Bush administration has been strongly critical of Syria’s support for groups on the State Department terrorist list, such as Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad. Additionally, Washington alleges that Damascus is tacitly and actively aiding the insurgency in Iraq, as well as developing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) with the help of Iran and North Korea. Until the recent withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, Washington was occupied with pressuring Syria to end the “occupation.”

As options for future U.S. policies, Dr. Ma'oz explored scenarios of confrontation and cooperation. In terms of confrontation, Dr. Ma’oz laid out a situation whereby the United States would continue with economic and diplomatic sanctions such as the “Syrian Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Act” (SALSA), which President Bush signed in December 2003. This scenario also considered an extreme situation where certain conservative circles in Washington would successfully push for military measures, should Syria not comply with U.S. demands. Dr. Ma'oz concluded that this scenario was not in the U.S. interest as it risked pushing Bashar Asad into cementing a militant axis with Iran and Hizballah or toppling the Asad regime, which would likely lead to a more unstable and anti-American Damascus.

In a more optimistic second scenario, Dr. Ma'oz suggested that the United States and Syria take mutual confidence building measures in order to sustain a “win-win” situation. This would include Syria agreeing to stop its support of the insurgency and Hezbollah, the United States dropping its insistence on democratization, and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon agreeing to renew peace talks with Syria and give up the Golan Heights. While the scenario might be “win-win,” Dr. Ma’oz recognizes that the scenario is probably not in the cards, given the international political climate and the personal convictions of these countries’ leaders.

Finally, Dr. Ma’oz argued for an incremental-pragmatic approach, employing both “sticks” and “carrots” to induce Damascus gradually to change its behavior and then to reward it accordingly. This policy would induce Bashar to carry out domestic reforms and to stop backing anti-American and anti-Israeli militant elements in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories. Additionally, this approach would also signal to Bashar that constructive Syrian measures will be rewarded in due course with the lifting of pressures and American sanctions, as well as with U.S. financial support. The United States should also be prepared to offer American involvement in negotiating the return of the Golan in exchange for peace with Israel. According to Dr. Ma'oz, this U.S. approach should be conducted mainly through back channels, while employing also the influence and good offices of countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and France. Dr. Ma'oz asserts that such an incremental-pragmatic approach may prove to be the most realistic and workable way to avoid an American-Syrian collision, which is likely to destabilize the region and prejudice American, Israeli, and Syrian interests.

Moshe Ma'oz is a professor of Islamic and Middle Eastern studies at Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He served as an advisor to Prime Ministers Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres, and is one of the world's foremost experts on Syrian history and politics.