This year has seen an unusual wave of protests in typically calm and stable Central Asia states. In January, Kazakhstan erupted in widespread violence. And in recent weeks, both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have seen popular protests in formally autonomous regions of their countries, surprising observers and prompting governments to cut off internet access and prevent outside media from covering the story. This spate of incidents appears to stem from regional leaders’ failure to anticipate popular reactions to policy changes — a string of “unforced errors” by Central Asian governments, followed by harsh overreactions in putting them down.  

On July 21, USIP and the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs hosted a conversation that attempted to pierce the veil of secrecy around some of these recent events in Central Asia. A panel of scholars discussed how they view these protests and tried to understand more broadly why governments in the region are suddenly struggling to keep things under control.

Take part in the conversation on Twitter using #USIPCentralAsia.

Speakers

Assel Tutumlu
Associate Professor, Near East University

Suzanne Levi-Sanchez
Non-Resident Fellow, School of International Service, American University

Ivan U. K. Klyszcz 
Doctoral Candidate, University of Tartu 

Gavin Helf, moderator
Senior Expert, Central Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace 

Related Publications

Explainer: What Caused the Recent Unrest in New Caledonia?

Explainer: What Caused the Recent Unrest in New Caledonia?

Thursday, May 23, 2024

Violence engulfed New Caledonia last week as the French National Assembly passed a constitutional amendment that will undermine the political representation of the Pacific territory’s Indigenous Kanak people. During days of unrest unprecedented since the 1980s, security forces and protesters clashed across the archipelago, leaving six dead and hundreds injured. Buildings and vehicles were set on fire in the capital, Nouméa, while streets were barricaded throughout the territory, flights were grounded and New Caledonia was placed under a state of emergency.

Type: Question and Answer

Democracy & GovernanceFragility & Resilience

Traumatic Decarbonization in Fragile States

Traumatic Decarbonization in Fragile States

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

The process of decarbonization—that is, the replacement of fossil fuels with non-hydrocarbon-based forms of energy—is essential for meeting the climate goals articulated by international agreements. But in fragile, oil-dependent nations, where hydrocarbon revenues are often a key means of political control, decarbonization can spell the difference between peace and conflict. This report examines the consequences of the sudden loss of oil revenues for fragile, conflict-affected states and provides recommendations for policymakers on how to manage future decarbonization peacefully.

Type: Peaceworks

Conflict Analysis & PreventionEconomicsEnvironmentFragility & Resilience

How ‘Traumatic Decarbonization’ Can Impact Political Stability and Peace

How ‘Traumatic Decarbonization’ Can Impact Political Stability and Peace

Wednesday, April 10, 2024

The process of decarbonization — that is, the replacement of fossil fuels with non-hydrocarbon-based forms of energy — is essential for the world to meet its climate goals. But in many fragile oil-producing states, hydrocarbon revenues are not just central to national economies. They also bind together the political system through elite revenue-sharing pacts. The rapid, unplanned decarbonization of these countries would spark political crisis, a process known as “traumatic decarbonization.”

Type: Question and Answer

EnvironmentFragility & Resilience

For Peace in Sahel, African and U.S. Experts Urge Focused Partnership

For Peace in Sahel, African and U.S. Experts Urge Focused Partnership

Thursday, February 22, 2024

The past month has sharpened a decade-old question for U.S. and international policymakers: How best, in 2024, to help stabilize what is now the world’s largest single zone of military rule and violent conflicts — Africa’s Sahel region? After three military-ruled Sahel states withdrew from the West African regional community in January, those juntas last week proclaimed an alliance aimed at resisting international pressures, including those for their return to elected civilian rule. Former U.S. and African officials yesterday urged what they called vital changes in U.S. and allied policies to prevent a dangerous spread of the Sahel’s crises.

Type: Analysis

Fragility & Resilience

View All Publications