On February 14, in the disputed region of Kashmir, a suicide bomber rammed into a convoy of Indian paramilitary police, killing 44. The attack was claimed by the Pakistan-based Islamist group Jaish-e-Mohammad and was the deadliest bombing in Kashmir in three decades. Nearly two weeks after the attack, India launched a retaliatory airstrike. USIP’s Moeed Yusuf examines how the U.S. and international partners are key to preventing further escalation that could lead to nuclear war.

Transcript

First, I think we have got to understand that this is serious. I’m not exaggerating when I’m saying that since Cuba in 1962, this is the closest we’ve gotten to a real nuclear crisis. This could escalate very quickly. 

Second, unlike the Cold War, India and Pakistan do not have any dependable means of crisis de-escalation. The Pakistani Prime Minister, in fact, publicly said that they know how to get into a crisis, but where the war goes, they don’t know.

In the past, every time they’ve gotten into a major crisis— there have been 3 or 4 since they became nuclear powers in 1998—it’s been the U.S. that has gone in, mediated, and gotten them to back off. It’s been the U.S. leading the charge internationally with the Chinese, with the Brits, with the Russian all involved, giving one message: deescalate the crisis and then we will worry about everything else. 

I will say two things that have worked in the past. One: shuttle diplomacy. There were senior U.S. officials, senior officials from Britain, there was a tag team that showed up in India and Pakistan and physically made these countries realize that this needs to stop. We haven’t seen that yet and I think it needs to begin immediately.

And second: There was a clear sense in India and Pakistan that the world had united in that message. It wasn’t only allies like Britain and Europe, but it was also the Chinese and Russians playing a very seriously helping hand to make that happen. Again, it’s not clear that that can or will happen right now, but this is where we need to focus. 

There is no space for complacency— this could really escalate quickly now given where the situation is. 


Related Publications

At SCO, Pakistan Promotes Relevance as China Projects Influence

At SCO, Pakistan Promotes Relevance as China Projects Influence

Thursday, October 24, 2024

Last week, Pakistan hosted leaders from China, Russia, India, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Iran and Belarus for the 23rd Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit. While the lead-up to the summit highlighted the constraints that Pakistan’s internal troubles place on its ability to play an active role in global diplomacy, Islamabad was able to sidestep any serious diplomatic faux pas. India’s attendance may have left a door cracked to dialogue between Pakistan and its neighboring rival.

Type: Question and Answer

Global Policy

Will the IMF’s $7 Billion Bailout Stabilize Pakistan’s Economy?

Will the IMF’s $7 Billion Bailout Stabilize Pakistan’s Economy?

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $7 billion loan for Pakistan aimed at helping the South Asian nation stabilize its economy. After assuming power earlier this year, Pakistan’s new coalition government led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) had approached the IMF for the 25th time for a loan. On September 12, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said his country had met all the conditions set by the IMF to qualify for a new loan. And on September 25, the IMF signed a formal approval of the loan.

Type: Question and Answer

Economics

Toward a Durable India-Pakistan Peace: A Roadmap through Trade

Toward a Durable India-Pakistan Peace: A Roadmap through Trade

Thursday, June 27, 2024

Despite a three-year long cease-fire along their contested border, trade and civil society engagement between India and Pakistan has dwindled, exacerbating the fragility of their relationship. With recently re-elected governments now in place in both countries, there is a window of opportunity to rekindle trade to bolster their fragile peace, support economic stability in Pakistan, create large markets and high-quality jobs on both sides, and open doors for diplomatic engagement that could eventually lead to progress on more contentious issues.

Type: Analysis

Economics

How Have India’s Neighbors Reacted to Its Election?

How Have India’s Neighbors Reacted to Its Election?

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Narendra Modi was sworn in on June 9 for his third consecutive term as India’s prime minister. Public polls had predicted a sweeping majority for Modi, so it came as some surprise that his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost ground with voters and had to rely on coalition partners to form a ruling government. Although India’s elections were fought mainly on domestic policy issues, there were important exceptions and Modi’s electoral setback could have implications for India’s regional and global policies.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

View All Publications