The global conflict landscape is becoming increasingly complex — and deadly, with violent deaths on the rise. Meanwhile, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed longstanding weaknesses in the multilateral system and its ability to prevent and mitigate conflict. Gary Milante, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, discusses what worries him most about current conflict trends, how great power competition factors into these trends and how donors can take a different approach to mitigating conflict.

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Western Sahara’s conflict is over. Negotiating the terms comes next.

Western Sahara’s conflict is over. Negotiating the terms comes next.

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

One of Africa’s longest wars shifted toward a conclusion in July when France recognized Morocco’s claim of sovereignty over the Western Sahara. That action, alongside Morocco’s military advantage, effectively will leave the indigenous Sahrawi independence movement with no choice but to eventually settle for some form of autonomy within Morocco. While this reality will be unsatisfactory for the estimated 173,000 Sahrawis living in refugee camps, their best option, and that of their backer, Algeria, is now to seize the opportunity to negotiate for best-possible peace terms with Morocco. Ending a war that keeps so many stateless and living in squalor while also removing a major irritant to the Moroccan-Algerian relationship will improve regional stability.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

Amid Illicit Drug Boom, Is the Pacific’s Regional Security Architecture Fit for Purpose?

Amid Illicit Drug Boom, Is the Pacific’s Regional Security Architecture Fit for Purpose?

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

In January, Fiji police seized more than four tons of methamphetamine during two raids in Nadi, marking one of the largest drug seizures in the country’s history. But while Fiji police made the seizure, they weren’t working alone. Such a significant law enforcement operation would not have been possible without the immense multi-jurisdictional, cross-border coordination between Fiji’s police, the Australian Federal Police and the Pacific Transnational Crime Coordination Centre.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & PreventionGlobal Policy

Myanmar’s Resistance Is Making Major Advances

Myanmar’s Resistance Is Making Major Advances

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

The resistance’s capture of the northern city of Lashio on August 3 marks a watershed moment in Myanmar’s conflict. After a month of fierce fighting, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and allied resistance forces captured this crucial stronghold in northern Shan State, dealing a severe blow to the beleaguered junta. This represents more than just the loss of a major city. It is the first time that a military regional command has been captured by resistance forces.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

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