Putin’s trip to North Korea wasn’t just about securing more weapons for his war on Ukraine — Moscow and Pyongyang signed a mutual defense pact, which could be “potentially very destabilizing for the Korean Peninsula” and “smacks a little of desperation” on Russia’s part, says USIP’s Mary Glantz.
U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.
Transcript
Laura Coates: We're joined now by Dr. Mary Glantz acting director for the Russia and Europe center for the USIP. I'm glad that she's joining. She was a career member of the U.S. Foreign Service and was detailed to the USIP as a State Department fellow prior to her returning back in 2022. Most of her more than two decades long career as a diplomat focused on Russia, the former Soviet Union and other countries in Europe and Eurasia. Previous overseas postings included places like Kosovo and Jerusalem and Estonia and she has served as a Russia analyst in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research as well as on the Russia and Poland desks at the State Department. Dr. Mary Glanz joins us now. Welcome back. And good morning, Dr. Glantz, how are you?
Mary Glantz: Good morning. I'm great. How are you?
Laura Coates: I'm great. Thank you so much for joining many people over the weekend may have seen and some more about the information coming out about what happened in Pyongyang and Putin and Kim and there was an odd video, of the two of them laughing in a vehicle of some sorts. What is the nature of this meeting that they've had and their relationship?
Mary Glantz: You know, it was really interesting because this was the second meeting in about two years. Kim came to Russia last year and went to the Vostochny Cosmodrome and traveled around and looked at Russian military technology and space technology. This time, Putin went to Pyongyang to return the visit something he hasn't done since I think 2000 When he was sort of a baby president. And he was clearly showing that this is a close friendly relationship, or at least that's what he was trying to show. Interestingly, however, I mean, on one hand, we suspected that he was going just to get more weapons, North Korea has been providing a ton of weapons to Russia in its war against Ukraine, especially ammunition shells, things that they vitally need. So, that was the obvious reason for him to go to Pyongyang. But before he went, they announced they were going to be signing a strategic agreement. And basically, what this turned out to be was a full military alliance where one will defend the other if attacked.
Laura Coates: In this Russia-North Korea military cooperation, then that it seems very clear would harm U.S. interests and goals in Ukraine.
Mary Glantz: Yeah, it's, um, it's definitely harmful. It's harmful for Ukraine, because Russia is using more shells, more artillery shells each month than they're able to produce. So, they need to get it from somewhere. But there's an arms embargo. So, they're turning to North Korea, who, while not saying openly that they're doing this is pretty clearly sending 1000s of train carloads of ammunition to Russia. And the other thing, which obviously, hurts U.S. interests, because we very strongly support Ukraine and every shell that Russia gets, they're able to kill Ukrainians. The other way that it hurts our interest is, however, that Putin is giving things back to Kim. So, he is giving them most notably, he promised to help them figure out how to get satellites into space. And so he's giving them the space technology they need, possibly missile technology, other things. So, it's potentially very, very destabilizing for the Korean peninsula. And you saw that in the reaction yesterday, when the State Department, the U.S. government, the Republic of Korea and Japan put out a joint statement reasserting their ironclad commitment to defense of South Korea and condemning this Russian-North Korean military cooperation because of its destabilizing effects and its violation of U.N. sanctions.
Laura Coates: What does this tell you that Putin and Kim are tightening their ties? Does this signal something about Putin and his perception of his own strength?
Mary Glantz: I think it's really more of a perception of his weakness. So personally, I find this very dangerous move by Putin because his most important relationship in the world right now is his relationship with President Xi of China. And China's absolutely vital now, they're not providing trainloads full of munitions like North Korea is, but they're providing a lot of material, semiconductors, things like that dual use material that is absolutely vital for the Russian war machine. They also are a very strong diplomatic ally for Russia. So, that's the most important relationship playing around with North Korea, establishing this relationship with North Korea smacks to me a little bit of desperation because Putin is desperate to get more weapons. But at the same time, he's doing things that might make Xi and China uncomfortable and he's risking that relationship. So, to me it sounds more like fear and weakness than it does strength if he was really strong, he wouldn't need to turn and be great friends with Kim of North Korea, he can continue to do things on his own.
Laura Coates: Dr. Mary Glantz, thank you so much acting director for the Russia and Europe center for the USIP thank you so much for stopping by the program. I appreciate it.
Mary Glantz: Thanks for having me.