U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Julian E. Zelizer: Joining us now is Ambassador William Taylor, vice president of the Europe and Russia Center at the United States Institute of Peace, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. You can follow him on social media @WilliamBTaylor8. Ambassador, welcome to the show.

Ambassador William Taylor: Julian, thank you very much for having me.

Julian E. Zelizer: Maybe we can just start, if you could just explain for anyone who has not been following the news, the most important elements of the prisoner release and exchange that just happened?

Ambassador William Taylor: Yeah, I think the most important aspect of that release is the alliance work. That is, these nations working together to make this happen. This was very, very complex, complicated, difficult negotiations, not just with the Russians. We had a lot of conversations among allies, where different nations had different Russians in their jails. The most important one, of course, was this Russian assassin in a German jail. This man had killed in plain daylight, broad daylight, in the middle of Berlin, a Chechen who had taken refuge in Germany, and had been apprehended, tried and convicted and was in jail. And so the Germans were not eager to send this man back, to let him free and to go back to Russia. So that was part of the conversation. All to say, Julian, the conversations among allies were as important as the conversations with the Russians.

Julian E. Zelizer: In my day job I'm a historian, and I'm always trying to explain to students what these big events look like in real life. And the conversations you're talking about, where do they happen? How do they happen? How do the different countries communicate on something like this?

Ambassador William Taylor: Yeah, it's a great question. And one of the difficulties of this, and one of the triumphs really of this, is keeping it quiet. If any one of these participants in any of these capitals, whether it's in Berlin, or in Germany, or whether it's in Norway, or Turkey, Poland, Slovenia, not to mention the United States and Russia, if that had gotten out, the whole deal could have been jeopardized. So your question's a good one. How do these conversations take place? Mainly, with security services. So our CIA, our intelligence services, together with our diplomats, the State Department Foreign Service, are in conversations in capitals, as well as directly between leaders, in some cases. We've heard that President Biden had to make phone calls and was involved in some of these negotiations at the senior level. So these conversations take place in various levels, some in capitals, some in other places. And the difficulty of keeping it quiet is both real and important.

Julian E. Zelizer: And there's been a long history since the early 60's of these exchanges with the Powers Exchange in 1962, Daniloff in 1986, and really, they have continued through every administration. How does this ... a lot of people are seeing this as historic, it's in some ways bolder than anything we've seen in a while. Is that the case and why?

Ambassador William Taylor: I think it is the case, actually, Julian. First of all, it's very big. I don't know if it's the largest ever. But 24 people were sent back and forth. Sixteen coming out of Russia, eight going back into Russia in return. So that's large. Historians like you will say if that is the largest, but that is one reason this is important. The other reason, the other historic aspect of this, is the number of nations involved. Again, the Russians and the Americans were the main drivers, but as I just described, the Germans played a major role. The chancellor, the German chancellor, played a major role in this. The Slovenian prime minister had to make a decision, again, to let Russians out of his jail to go back to Russia. So the number of nations involved and the size of the exchanges, I think, make it historic. 

Julian E. Zelizer: And what's the sense of why Putin had an incentive to do this? I mean, that's always the big question, but what would drive him to engage in this deal right now?

Ambassador William Taylor: It's a great question. No one knows what goes on in this man's head. People have tried, much smarter people than I am, have studied this man for a long time. No one knows what's in his head. But one of the things we can guess is that he really wanted this guy back. He wanted this Russian FSB, KGB assassin, Krasikov. And he wanted him back in order to send a message, not just to that assassin, not that criminal FSB guy in jail, but to others, other members of the Russian Security Services that are sent out into the world, to other nations, to kill people, and to do other bad things. And Putin wanted to send a message to them that they should continue to do this. And so he wanted to get this guy back. I think that was, again, no one knows what's in his head. But that may have been the main driver, he wanted this guy back.

Julian E. Zelizer: And one of the issues that's always raised is, does this create bad incentives? When you do these kinds of deals, does it increase the risk that more prisoners will be taken, actually, in the future? And is this damaging to negotiate this way? And I'm curious, you've been a diplomat so long, how do you think of that problem and the benefits of doing this not simply the costs?

Ambassador William Taylor: You're exactly right, you have to look at the cost and the benefits of both options. Negotiate or don't negotiate. And if you don't negotiate, and you leave Americans in jail forever. That's a cost. That's a problem. We don't want to do that. We want to bring people home. The cost of negotiating is exactly what you said. There's an incentive. And Putin has taken this incentive to grab people. I'm sure he grabbed Evan Gershkovich to trade for this assassin that was in the German jail. And so that's a bad incentive, if that's the only way that Putin can get this guy back. And he'll grab an American hold him in jail for nearly two years. That's a bad incentive. I’ve got to believe that the benefits of negotiating to get these Americans and others back. Again, Germans and Russians were also freed in this thing. So that negotiation had some benefits. There are some costs that you described, but I think it's the right call.

Julian E. Zelizer: And then in terms of the allies, such as Germany, what's their - obviously there's to do good, but what is their interest in kind of taking part of obviously negotiations in a deal that on their end has costs as well?

Ambassador William Taylor: It does have costs. It has moral and ethical costs. Again, what we just described. There were a lot of people in Germany who did not want to let this assassin go. He was tried, convicted and he should spend time, the rest of his life, in jail, they thought. And they were, of course, right. H should have. But nonetheless, they saw the benefit, number one, of working with the United States, their allies, and they worked together on this. Number two, there were benefits for the Germans to be able to get these people back. So the alliance coherence and solidarity, working together is an important part of this. I think we heard that the chancellor said to President Biden, "I'm doing this for you."

Julian E. Zelizer: And is something of this sort totally isolated and on its own track, or can this either be directly involved or have ripple effects or other international issues, such as the war with Russia and Ukraine or other international issues that might not be as apparent? Do you see any connections between just what happened and some of these other questions?

Ambassador William Taylor: So Julian, I bet, again, no one knows what's in Putin's head, but I bet that he would like for the answer to your question to be yes. He would like there to be some indication based on this, that he can do a deal with the Americans on Ukraine. And that will not happen because on the U.S. side, and on the alliance side, it's very clear what has to happen to resolve the Ukraine War. And that's just the Russians have to get out of Ukraine. And so, from our standpoint, there's no link. Putin would like there to be a link so that he can say, "Well, I'm actually talking with the Americans now about this. And we can ..." No, no. He would like that to happen. The Americans are not, and the Ukrainians, even more importantly, are not buying it.

Julian E. Zelizer: And there are still U.S. prisoners who remain. Who were not part of the exchange. So do we just ... is there another round of negotiations? And what about their story and what happens next?

Ambassador William Taylor: There must be another round of negotiations. That has, sadly, again, we've talked about bad incentives, but those are out there. We don't want to leave Americans in these jails. There is a determination of wrongly detained, as Gershkovich and the others were, Whelan and others. If they have that designation, then we go to great lengths to do these negotiations to get them out. That's what will have to continue to happen.

Julian E. Zelizer: And do you think, I feel like we live in an age when the virtues of diplomacy and alliances are not as front and center for many people anymore, and yet any historical look at the country and the world, kind of, you can see quite clearly what they can accomplish? Do you think at a moment like this, these kinds of dramatic exchanges have the potential to revive the place of diplomacy in American culture? And as a diplomat, kind of what would you say of what that tool, the importance of that tool, to our safety and security?

Ambassador William Taylor: You're exactly right to break this up, Julian. This, what we've seen over the last 24 hours, which took place over years, the last two years, to actually accomplish is a tribute to, is a demonstration of, the American diplomats and security officers and other national security staff at the NSC. The diplomacy that went into this culminated yesterday in a public display of what had been going on in private for all these months. And you're right. This is a demonstration that diplomacy can work and does work and can benefit, does benefit, American citizens. And this is a good lesson.

Julian E. Zelizer: Well, there are few people as well versed and experienced as yourself to talk to about this. I want to thank you, Ambassador William Taylor, who is now the vice president for the Europe and Russia Center at the United States Institute of Peace. Thank you so much for joining the show and walking us through what this all means.

Ambassador William Taylor: Julian, thank you very much for having me.