KEY TAKEAWAYS
KEY TAKEAWAYS
After Palau held its presidential election on November 5, incumbent President Surangel Whipps Jr. was announced as the winner this week. Palau — an archipelago of more than 300 islands to the east of the Philippines and southwest of Guam — is one of Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic partners in the region and has seen an increasing U.S. military presence in recent years, making it a focal point for competition between the United States and China. Palau gained independence from the United States in 1994 and has maintained a close relationship with Washington ever since under the Compact of Free Association.
USIP’s Camilla Pohle explores how Palau’s presidential candidates viewed Taiwan and China, how they campaigned, and what Whipps’ reelection means for Palau’s relationship with the United States.
Whipps ran against former President Tommy Remengesau — his brother-in-law — and won by just over 1,500 votes, a significant margin for a country of about 18,000 people. This is a sharp contrast from the 2016 election, when Whipps lost to Remengesau by under 300 votes.
While the candidates differ on issues like taxes and the economy, they both support Palau’s ties with the United States and Taiwan. In April, Whipps said that China’s efforts to persuade Palau to recognize Beijing are “constant,” including offers from diplomats and investors to build more hotels in the country, which relies heavily on tourism. In August, he said that China was still “weaponizing tourism.” Nevertheless, he has remained determined to preserve Palau’s ties with Taiwan.
While the candidates differ on issues like taxes and the economy, they both support Palau’s ties with the United States and Taiwan.
Remengesau took the same approach during his time in office — and resisted even stronger pressure tactics. In 2017, China halved the number of its tourists to Palau as a way to pressure the country to switch recognition. Remengesau refused, saying that Palau’s democratic ideals aligned more closely with Taiwan’s. Before 2017, Remengesau had in fact attempted to reduce the number of Chinese tourist arrivals, which were driving up rental prices, and preferred instead to diversify Palau’s tourism market.
When Whipps ran for office in 2020, Remengesau was unable to run because Palau’s constitution prevents presidents from serving more than two consecutive terms. At the time, Remengesau expressed concern to U.S. officials that, if elected, Whipps might switch recognition to Beijing, since Whipps’ stance was relatively unknown. That proved untrue, but it is noteworthy that Remengesau worried so much about another leader severing Palau’s ties to Taiwan that he warned the United States about it.
Both Remengesau and Whipps have sought to portray themselves as the sole bulwark against Palau switching recognition, but in reality, their stance toward Taipei is the same. Nevertheless, some international observers oversimplified the election, framing it as a contest between a pro-Taiwan and a pro-China candidate.
International observers contrasting the presidential candidates on China got it wrong — and overlooked more concerning developments.
In September, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) published an article saying that Remengesau is “pro-Beijing” and has “several ties to China,” and that the election “may determine Palau’s future relationship with Taiwan,” implying Remengesau might switch recognition if elected. These assertions ignored his track record and were based on Remengesau having met once with Chinese businessman and former triad leader Wan Kuok Koi and often with Singaporean businessman Zhang Bauluo.
Concerns about Remengesau meeting Wan are overblown — in a country as small as Palau, a meeting doesn’t denote a relationship or political stance. As for Zhang, the two have a friendly history, but that isn’t evidence that Remengesau supports switching recognition to China. After ASPI’s article was blasted by Remengesau himself, its editors changed “pro-Beijing” to “preferred by Beijing,” but history doesn’t support that assertion either.
Warnings about Remengesau switching recognition to China were not only misinformed, they ignored his more concerning overtures to Russia and overlooked the most pro-China candidate running in this election: former Vice President Raynold Oilouch.
International observers concerned about China’s influence in Palau should realize the presidency is not the only race to watch. In Palau, vice presidential and presidential candidates run separately, and this year, Oilouch won by a landslide. During his presidential run in 2020, he publicly considered switching recognition to Beijing, and was widely thought to have received funding from Chinese diplomats for his campaign. It is unclear if Oilouch will be able to advance these interests as Whipps’ vice president, but when it comes to switching recognition, he is the one to watch — not Remengesau.
This isn’t the first time that international observers have created a false dichotomy about an election in the Pacific Islands. In 2022, some journalists covering Fiji’s election portrayed Frank Bainimarama as friendlier to China than his rival, Sitiveni Rabuka, but the reality was more nuanced.
Ahead of the election, Whipps touted his efforts to boost Palau’s economy after the COVID-19 downturn, and pointed to tax reform, improved health care services and a higher budget for school supplies under his administration. Whipps also launched a program while in office called the Blue Prosperity Plan, which promotes sustainable fisheries and tourism, striking a balance between economic benefits and preserving Palau’s resources.
Remengesau’s campaign against Whipps largely focused on the economy. He criticized Whipps’ tax policies and said they contributed to the rising cost of living and emigration from the country. He pointed to affordable housing as an issue that Whipps’ government has not prioritized. Remengesau also promised to restore an independent drug enforcement unit to tackle Palau’s current challenges with methamphetamines.
The election was also marked by spurious legal disputes. A few months beforehand, Whipps’ political allies attempted to prevent Remengesau from running for president. They requested that the Palau Election Commission disqualify him, arguing that his candidacy was incompatible with Palau’s constitution, which says that a president may not serve “for more than two consecutive terms.”
However, the Palau Election Commission had already ruled on the issue. Remengesau has served two consecutive terms as president twice already, from 2001 to 2009 and from 2013 to 2021. The commission decided in 2012 that he could run again because of the break after 2009.
Another legal issue arose in the final days before the vote: Whipps’ father sued Palau’s largest newspaper, the Island Times, for defamation. The suit sought damages for an article that covered leaked tax documents from Whipps’ father’s company, Surangel and Sons. The story had sparked debate online about how much the company paid in taxes, especially since taxation was a crucial election issue.
Whipps Jr. called the Island Times article “political propaganda,” and Surangel and Sons said it contained “misinformation and disinformation to confuse voters.” The newspaper’s editor, Leilani Reklai, on the other hand, called the lawsuit “intimidation.” Her view is supported by an organization monitoring regional press freedom and the owner of another local media outlet, who say it is undermining media freedom.
In his second term, Whipps will continue to seek close partnership with the United States, Palau’s largest donor and security guarantor. In 2023, the United States renewed funding for its Compact of Free Association with Palau. This money will be disbursed over the next 20 years and will go toward health, education, public safety, climate change and the environment, and auditing. But the funding won’t fix all of Palau’s challenges.
Whipps stated last week that he will continue to prioritize climate change in engaging with Washington. “I think that’s one of the areas where we, as Pacific nations, need to unite and communicate with the United States, especially [incoming] President Trump, to share our concerns,” he said. Palau is facing “higher temperatures, stronger typhoons, coral reef loss, and coastal flooding,” according to a 2020 report. Climate change threatens the natural resources that many Palauans rely on to feed their families: Reef fish are dwindling and they spoil faster in the warmer temperatures.
In 2021, Whipps told an international audience that large CO2 emitters are “threatening our very survival,” and called for unified action for “1.5 to stay alive.” This rallying cry, widely adopted by Pacific Island countries, refers to the fact that if the global temperature increases by more than 2 degrees Celsius, it will severely endanger life on earth. “You might as well bomb our islands instead of making us suffer only to witness our slow and fateful demise,” Whipps said.
Speaking of bombs, unexploded ordnance from World War II still litters the country, one of many challenges in need of urgent U.S. action. Meanwhile, many Palauans serve in the U.S. military, but often don’t receive the health benefits owed to them. Many young people leave the country seeking jobs and education elsewhere. And Palau lacks adequate law enforcement to counter illegal fishing or deter incursions by Chinese research vessels.
Some Palauans, however, fear that an increasing military presence could make them a target for China in a future conflict.
Another challenge for Palau could be the cost of U.S.-China rivalry. The Compact of Free Association allows the United States to build military facilities in Palau, and Whipps has supported the building of a U.S. radar site, arguing that “presence is deterrence.” Some Palauans, however, fear that an increasing military presence could make them a target for China in a future conflict. In the last several years, the Department of Defense has used Palau for several military exercises.
Palau is in a more precarious position than it has been in decades, surrounded by geopolitical tension and rising seas. It has long been a staunch partner to the United States and Taiwan, but that shouldn’t be taken for granted. U.S. engagement will be best received if it addresses Palau’s concerns about climate change, geopolitics and other issues, and is not seen as solely advancing U.S. interests. Support from Washington in the coming years may make the difference between continued partnership or a gradual erosion of ties that could, one day, finally open the door to Beijing.