Prospects for a Lasting Settlement in Northern Ireland
On November 9, 1998, the Institute hosted a luncheon discussion with Joe Pilling, permanent undersecretary of state for the Northern Ireland Office for the United Kingdom. Undersecretary Pilling discussed the current state of play in the Northern Ireland peace process.
Joe Pilling, permanent undersecretary of state for the Northern Ireland Office for the United Kingdom.
For Northern Ireland, 1998 has been a year like no other. When the year began, the talks were still going on, mostly in Belfast but with a week in London and a week in Dublin. The peak of the year was the Good Friday agreement. We owe a great deal to George Mitchell for the successful outcome of the talks.
Now, the difficult issue of decommissioning has become a serious obstacle. In the near future, it does not look as if decommissioning will be carried out by most of the organizations associated with the agreement. The Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF) has made the most positive statements regarding decommissioning, but the LVF took no part in drawing up the agreement. Mo Mowlam is studying the LVF position and she will decide whether or not the LVF will be brought into the agreement. Unfortunately, others are not showing signs of taking up the decommissioning part of the agreement.
USIP President Richard Solomon makes welcoming remarks.
William FitzGerald, former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland (1992-93), introduces Undersecretary Pilling.
Ambassador FitzGerald and Undersecretary Pilling consider a point during the briefing.
"The alternative to a lasting settlement is a return to violence. I do not believe that there is a constituency of any significant proportion in favor of a return to violence in Northern Ireland. The work that has been done to improve understanding and to develop tolerance and sympathy is the most potent factor that will see us through the impasse."
-- Joe Pilling
On the other side of the equation, the ministers of the shadow executive, with the exception of the first and deputy first ministers, have not been appointed. At the moment, the unionist community feels that there is a lack of confidence and good faith in relation to the agreement. As a result, they are less willing to move forward to implement the shadow executive.
These are some of the reasons that those of us who are concerned for the welfare of the process and the welfare of the island of Ireland remain somewhat anxious about our current state of affairs.
Nevertheless, by common consent all parties have begun to join in doing the necessary practical work to ensure the process goes forward despite the fact that the shadow executive has not been appointed and the October 31st deadline has passed.
I do not think a deal to break the current impasse will be the result of a brilliant technical solution arrived at by me or one of my colleagues. I will say however that I am not pessimistic about this process. I have an underlying confidence that the current settlement and state of peace will be sustained.
Here are few of the reasons why I think the process will be sustained:
- Over the past twenty years, a great amount of work has been put in by not very glamorous, not very well known people in Northern Ireland and beyond. These people belong to community groups, churches and other organizations which have been building bridges across deep divides between ordinary people in ordinary situations. Over time, opinions and feelings do begin to change as a result of that bridging work. In the excitement of the last few months, it is easy to neglect that effort. But the resilience of that work is why I am reasonably positive in my view of the future.
- The Good Friday agreement would not have occurred if it had not offered everybody somewhat more than it took away, or disappointed. That was true on Good Friday, and it is true in November 1998 and it will be true next year.
- The courage of local politicians was a remarkable feature of the process, communicating and taking risks in the way that they did is not to underestimated. That quality - demonstrated on all sides - is not gone. Furthermore, we can look for that quality to advance the process once again at the right time.
- For four years, the process has had enormous support from outside the islands, especially from the United States and Europe. The influence of the United States cannot be overestimated in this process. At no time in recent years have I seen as close a relationship between Dublin, Washington and London.
I would like to finish where I began. The alternative to a lasting settlement is a return to violence. I do not believe that there is a constituency of any significant proportion in favor of a return to violence in Northern Ireland or beyond Northern Ireland. The work that has been done to improve understanding and to develop tolerance and sympathy is the most potent factor that will see us through the impasse.
Additional Comments:
"As you spoke Joe, I found myself reflecting that it was an extraordinary thing for someone like myself to be sitting here listening to an English official speak about Northern Ireland and me agreeing with every word you have said. I think it's an extraordinary development as to how far we've come."
--Father Sean McManus, Irish National Caucus
Speakers
- Richard Solomon, Introductions
President, U.S. Institute of Peace - Joe Pilling
Permanent Undersecretary of State for the Northern Ireland Office for the United Kingdom - William FitzGerald
Former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland - Father Sean McManus
Irish National Caucus
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