On December 12, the Institute hosted a Current Issues Briefing on prospects for the Northern Ireland peace process with State Department director of policy and planning Richard Haass and Northern Ireland experts Paul Arthur and Andy Pollak. The session was moderated by Northern Ireland scholar and Institute senior fellow Marie Smyth.

Friday After Next: Making the Good Friday Agreement Work

Discussing his observations and findings from his recent series of trips to Northern Ireland, Haass emphasized that he had been "left with a sense of opportunity" from his meetings with local political and community leaders there. Haass went on to stress that, even after recent set-backs, commitment to the Good Friday Agreement remained strong in both Northern Ireland and Great Britain and that the Bush administration did not see "any viable alternative to the Good Friday Agreement...and plan(s) to continue to press for its full implementation."

To keep all parties on track and to build a foundation for a sustainable peace in the region, Haass outlined five important steps that must be made:

1. Eliminate all paramilitary capabilities and activities in Northern Ireland.
2. Facilitate more effective community policing programs and police reform activities.
3. Demilitarize the British military presence in Northern Ireland as part of the process of normalizing relations between Britain and Northern Ireland.
4. Strengthen institutions and activities in support of human rights in Northern Ireland.
5. Restore local power-sharing institutions.

Summing up, Hass noted that all of the above measures were related to the economic, political, and physical security in the region. "Not every[one] has to do the same thing," Hass commented, "but everyone has to do something," for the parties to live up to the promise of the Good Friday Agreement.

Looking through the Fog of Peace Processes

Contrary to popular opinion, Arthur argued, a close look at the current state of the peace process in Northern Ireland reveals that while progress has been slow at times, there have been marked steps forward in the wake of the Good Friday Agreement. Speaking from his years of research into political violence and peace processes, Arthur emphasized that "a certain amount of disorientation is inevitable as is the roller coaster between hope and fear."

Outlining some of the recent developments in the ongoing evolution of the peace process, Arthur pointed to recent remarks from both unionist and nationalist leaders in Northern Ireland as evidence that mindsets are changing on both sides. He also noted that the Irish Republican Army (IRA) appeared to be making steps towards accepting a new role in the wake of the Good Friday Agreement. However, Arthur stressed, maintaining U.S. leverage and development over the next several months will be crucial. Arthur also cautioned that all parties must expect that the peace process will "be full of compromise and frustration" as implementation of the Good Friday agreement moves forward in the months and years ahead.

Finding Common Ground: Regional Cooperation after the Good Friday Agreement

Building upon the previous speakers' remarks, Pollak pointed out that finding ways to build trust between all of the parties involved would be a key aspect in making the aspirations of the Good Friday Agreement a permanent reality. However, Pollak noted that the Good Friday Agreement had already laid a solid foundation for building trust and that one of the most promising indications of this was the growth in North-South cooperation fostered by the agreement.

One of the major—although underappreciated—success stories of the Good Friday Agreement, Pollak noted, was the dramatic increase in cooperation between Northern and Southern Ireland in the wake of the agreement. A by-product of the strong set of cooperation mechanisms created by the agreement, these new institutions have provided a venue for positive interaction between government, business, and community leaders from the north and south on a community to community level. This, he argued, has been crucial in providing an opportunity for individuals and local communities to establish relationships outside of the traditional cultural, social, religious, and political tensions that have traditionally dominated relations between Northern and Southern Ireland. "For the first time in nearly a century, " Pollak emphasized, "significant numbers of people, including northern unionists, are meeting to talk, listen, and ultimately work together across the Irish border."

In closing, Pollak cautioned that while this regional cooperation may be a portent of a future for permanent peace, the road ahead would be difficult and long. For progress to continue on the peace process, Pollak emphasized, all of the parties to the Good Friday Agreement must find answers for several tough questions:

• How can the IRA make a move towards decommissioning that will satisfy both the British government and nationalist constituencies within Northern Ireland?
• What should an appropriate British response be to actual steps towards decommissioning by the IRA and other paramilitary organizations in Northern Ireland?
• Should arms decommission be linked to the restoration of the local governance institutions recently suspended by the British government?
• What is the future of Irish unity—is Irish unity inevitable or will unionists be successful in using the Good Friday Agreement as a tool to bring a "British Northern Ireland" into the fold of the United Kingdom over the long term?

This USIPeace Briefing reflects the presentation and comments from "The Northern Ireland Peace Process: Problems and Prospects"—Current Issues Briefing held at the U.S. Institute of Peace December 12, 2002. The views summarized above reflect the discussion at the meeting; they do not represent formal positions taken by the Institute, which does not advocate specific policies.

The United States Institute of Peace is an independent, nonpartisan institution established and funded by Congress. Its goals are to help prevent and resolve violent international conflicts, promote post-conflict stability and development, and increase conflict management capacity, tools, and intellectual capital worldwide. The Institute does this by empowering others with knowledge, skills, and resources, as well as by directly engaging in peacebuilding efforts around the globe.