China and the Philippines this weekend reached a deal aimed at reducing their growing tensions over Second Thomas Shoal. The agreement comes as maritime confrontations have been increasing in frequency and intensity, raising fears of a broader conflict that could lead to the Philippines invoking its mutual defense treaty with the United States. While the deal could be a key step to reducing tensions, messaging from both Beijing and Manila suggests that both sides still firmly maintain their positions on the disputed waters, and that they see the agreement’s provisions in fundamentally different ways.
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Question and Answer
Conflict Analysis & Prevention