On the Issues: Arab/Israeli Outlook
December 27, 2009 marked two years since Israel's offensive in Gaza. Direct peace negotiations have stalled but Washington continues its attempts to broker a deal between the two sides. USIP expert Scott Lasensky recaps 2010 and shares expectations for Arab/Israeli negotiations in 2011.
December 27, 2010
December 27, 2009 marked two years since Israel's offensive in Gaza. Peace negotiations have stalled but Washington continues to broker a deal between the two sides. USIP expert Scott Lasensky recaps 2010 and shares expectations for Arab/Israeli negotiations in 2011.
- Over the weekend there were more tensions between Israel and Gaza? What is the situation?
- Overall how do you assess the state of the peace process at the end of 2010?
- What are your expectations for 2011?
Over the weekend there were more tensions between Israel and Gaza? What is the situation?
Violence has been a constant feature on the Gaza-Israel frontier for much of the last ten years – both before and after Israel's redeployment in 2005; and before and after the Hamas takeover in July 2007. Although the area has been relatively quiet since the end of the Israel-Hamas war in January 2009, tensions have flared again.
For much of 2009 and 2010, it seemed Hamas was reeling from its losses in the war and had an incentive to maintain relative quiet – hoping to rebuild, allow for more humanitarian assistance to Gaza's beleaguered population, and to leverage growing international opposition to Israel's tight embargo. But in recent weeks, the level of violence has flared again. There's little consensus as to the cause. There is inherent tension given the long standoff, the close confines and the high level of interconnectedness between Israel and Gaza. There are also intra-Palestinian dynamics – between groups within Gaza, and between Hamas and the West Bank/Fatah-led Palestinian Authority – that often spill over into violence. Some even speculate that there could be a split in Hamas between the Gaza-based and the external leadership, with the latter even more strident and willing to challenge Israel with violence, including attacks against civilians.
Two mediated processes that many hoped would produce greater stability – one involving Egypt and other Arab actors aimed at Palestinian unity; and a second, indirect negotiation between Israel and Hamas over a prisoner deal have long been stalled. With diplomacy stagnant and Gaza's burgeoning population facing ever more extreme conditions, the situation remains explosive.
Overall how do you assess the state of the peace process at the end of 2010?
At the end of 2010, the peace process is effectively dead. The early September launch of direct Israeli-Palestinian peace talks proved to be one of the shortest negotiations on record. Israeli and Palestinian leaders seem careful to avoid blame, but otherwise appear uninterested in taking risks for peace. Continued Israeli settlement activity throughout the West Bank and Jerusalem is one cause of the current stalemate, but certainly not the only factor. Questions have been raised about the willingness of both leaderships to compromise – and atomized domestic politics on both sides rarely favors game-changing peace initiatives.
More broadly, there is little positive movement within the region and a seemingly "perfect storm" of diplomatic paralysis – Turkey's icy relations with Israel work against its earlier mediation between Jerusalem and Damascus; Egypt's regional influence may be on the wane, partly due to its looming leadership transition; anxiety is building over possible indictments by the U.N.-sponsored Hariri tribunal; Saudi Arabia is frustrated with its stalled Arab Peace Initiative; and Iran and its regional allies remain aligned against the peace process. Moreover, Washington seems to be back at square one.
International efforts to promote Palestinian institution-building provide some hope, as do recent Israeli measures to ease restrictions throughout the West Bank – but without movement on a broader political process, even these positive developments could eventually unravel.
What are your expectations for 2011?
In 2011, all eyes are on Washington – not only to see how the Obama Administration reshapes its approach to the Arab-Israeli peace process (before it becomes consumed by the 2012 election cycle), but also on the larger confrontation with Iran, which has significant impact the regional strategic environment. Also, should another Arab-Israeli war break out, Washington could have an unexpected opportunity to intervene more assertively and upend the current diplomatic stalemate. Later this year also looms Palestinian Prime Minister Fayyad's deadline on statehood, which could provide another focal point for peacemaking, or possibly trigger a new confrontation with Israel. The worsening stagnation has led to new calls for a bolder American peace initiative, one focused less on process and more on the terms of peace. Although skeptics see such a move as premature, the U.S. may be running out of other options.
