August 30, 2011

As Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi’s whereabouts remain unknown and fighting continues, Libya faces mounting challenges in the days and months ahead.

Of all the issues facing Libya’s new, nominal leadership, one that may be the most pressing, yet less conspicuous, is the growing dissension among Libyan youth. Even as changes from the revolution sweep Libya, many youth have begun to feel the new leadership feels a bit like the old.

That sense stems from concerns among young Libyans that the country’s new leaders, the National Transitional Council (NTC), are ignoring their input, dismissing their passion, and taking for granted their support. They may be doing so at their peril, argues the USIP’s Manal Omar, who just left Benghazi, Libya in late August.

“The NTC is underestimating them,” she says.

Young Libyans have long felt a more pointed sense of suffering under the Qaddafi regime. As a result, Libyan youth are showing a sophisticated level of interest in how the transition to a new government occurs and what are the end results. For starters, they’d like to know more about the criteria by which members of the NTC are selected. And they want to know how they can hold the council accountable. Omar fears that members of the NTC think “they can just show up and say something and the youth will accept it at face value.” She suggests the NTC should reach out to the youth and engage them to assure them they are as much a part of Libya’s future as anyone else. Addressing such concerns is but one of many challenges the country’s nascent leadership faces in the coming days, even as Qaddafi’s whereabouts remain a mystery, fighting with his loyalists continue, and the NTC hasn’t formally taken over Bab al-Aziziya, Qaddafi’s Tripoli compound.

Naturally, security is a major concern. But those worries are magnified tenfold by the stockpiles of arms belonging to Qaddafi that opposition fighters have uncovered in recent months. Qaddafi, long known as an arms hoarder, equated weapons with prestige and accumulated many over the years.

“That is not good for the long-term health of Libya,” says the USIP’s Paul Hughes. “The [transitional government] needs to get the weapons back under positive control,” he says.

Hughes laments that crew-served weapons like mortars and other arms have fallen into the hands of various actors during this period of uncertainty and transition. Libya was already known for its “gun culture,” so the lawlessness and absence of organized security overseen by the government, at least for now, creates a strategic problem as Libya moves forward. Most observers believe that a balance must be struck between the needs of a society demanding ways to protect itself with the overarching need for civil society and order.

“Public order and safety has to be a priority,” says Hughes.

Libya’s police and other security forces remain in a precarious position. Many are worried about retribution against them because they represent the face of the Qaddafi regime. And much of those forces, which carried out his brutal policies, don’t know what role they will have in the new Libya. As a result, they may “step back,” as USIP’s Colette Rausch says, creating a vacuum.

“If you have a country where you had a leader who kept a firm hand on things, then, when that firm hand is off, you may see old grievances emerge, retribution against the old regime and people going after those who were aligned with Qaddafi,” she says.

For now, many local councils have sprung up as “impromptu neighborhood watches” to provide security, says Omar. That rudimentary security infrastructure will likely continue until the NTC can move into Tripoli and begin to assume responsibility for security across the country. While addressing society’s urgent needs is vital, the NTC must also focus on the big picture when looking at elections, the constitution and political reconciliation and accommodation – the backbones to a civil society emerging from conflict, observers note. In this context, the most important thing is that the transitional government be as inclusive as possible, says the USIP’s Jason Gluck, who calls it a “demonstration of generosity.”

That means that the new Libyan leadership must not overdo it in terms of identifying the “villains and aggressors of wrongdoing,” as Gluck calls them. Instead, the leadership should err on the side of being broadly inclusive.

“Define that field of people of villains as narrowly as possible,” he says. “Welcome all others into the new national project.”

Libya should not learn the painful lessons of other countries, such as Iraq, where entire groups were pushed aside and the seeds for civil war were planted.

Elections are yet another issue. While they remain the foremost way for a new government to establish legitimacy, Gluck, Omar and others believe delaying them could have a strongly positive effect. Elections held too soon after Qaddafi’s demise will likely benefit those who are the most organized – and the ones closest to the old regime. Delaying elections, by perhaps as much as two years says Gluck, will allow time to organize them properly and will level the playing field for worthy political contenders.

Holding off on elections will also create an environment in which negotiation and compromise is more likely because political leaders will not yet be entrenched. “It’s also more likely to build a system of government where power is dispersed and different institutions are able to hold each other accountable,” Gluck says.

Qaddafi himself, of course, remains the largest question mark for now, and the mystery surrounding his whereabouts may contribute to further splintering within a society seeking answers. The sooner the leader really is deposed, the better, since he so embodies the oppressive and brutal regime Libyans now try to forget.

“He is the maddest of the mad men,” says Omar.

Explore Further

• Countries and Continents: Libya
• Helping Libya’s New Leaders Move from Euphoria to Reform
  On the Issues by Colette Rausch | August 24, 2011
• Eye on the Middle East and North Africa
  News Features | Updated: August 2011
  Experts from the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) are closely following developments throughout the Middle East and North Africa. In a series of reports and interviews, they cover a wide range of issues.