The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) is engaged in a variety of peacebuilding and conflict management efforts in many of the countries where these lesser-known risks are emerging. In a series of articles, the Institute examines some of these “sleeper risks” through the analytical lens of USIP experts.

Many of the clearest risks of conflict, violence and instability around the world have received widespread media attention. But a variety of other risks and threats have been smoldering quietly. They stem from long-developing trends or underappreciated political, economic or diplomatic factors, and some are spinning off from wider, existing conflicts or disputes.

The exploration of rising conflicts presented throughout this series isn’t meant to be definitive; nor does it represent an official USIP list. But the risks and threats being spotlighted suggest that there will be no shortage of attention-grabbing conflicts in 2013.

Read Features in This Series


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Western Sahara’s conflict is over. Negotiating the terms comes next.

Western Sahara’s conflict is over. Negotiating the terms comes next.

Wednesday, August 14, 2024

One of Africa’s longest wars shifted toward a conclusion in July when France recognized Morocco’s claim of sovereignty over the Western Sahara. That action, alongside Morocco’s military advantage, effectively will leave the indigenous Sahrawi independence movement with no choice but to eventually settle for some form of autonomy within Morocco. While this reality will be unsatisfactory for the estimated 173,000 Sahrawis living in refugee camps, their best option, and that of their backer, Algeria, is now to seize the opportunity to negotiate for best-possible peace terms with Morocco. Ending a war that keeps so many stateless and living in squalor while also removing a major irritant to the Moroccan-Algerian relationship will improve regional stability.

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Amid Illicit Drug Boom, Is the Pacific’s Regional Security Architecture Fit for Purpose?

Amid Illicit Drug Boom, Is the Pacific’s Regional Security Architecture Fit for Purpose?

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In January, Fiji police seized more than four tons of methamphetamine during two raids in Nadi, marking one of the largest drug seizures in the country’s history. But while Fiji police made the seizure, they weren’t working alone. Such a significant law enforcement operation would not have been possible without the immense multi-jurisdictional, cross-border coordination between Fiji’s police, the Australian Federal Police and the Pacific Transnational Crime Coordination Centre.

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Myanmar’s Resistance Is Making Major Advances

Myanmar’s Resistance Is Making Major Advances

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The resistance’s capture of the northern city of Lashio on August 3 marks a watershed moment in Myanmar’s conflict. After a month of fierce fighting, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and allied resistance forces captured this crucial stronghold in northern Shan State, dealing a severe blow to the beleaguered junta. This represents more than just the loss of a major city. It is the first time that a military regional command has been captured by resistance forces.

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