With fighting in Iraq spreading since the shocking onslaught of a militant group once aligned with al-Qaida, the country's Parliament convened this week to start forming a new government based on the April elections, only to adjourn again within hours. Sarhang Hamasaeed, a senior program officer at the U.S. Institute of Peace, explains the latest developments, the forces tearing at the country's fabric and the effects on the broader region.

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Photo Credit: The New York Times/Bryan Denton

What is this militant group ISIS (ISIL or IS) and what do they want?

The militant group Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS or ISIL because some translate "al-Sham" or "Syria" as "Levant") once was known as Al-Qaida in Iraq and fought U.S. forces before they withdrew in December 2011. Its former leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was known for his brutal acts and was killed in a 2006 air strike.

As the conflict broke out three years ago in neighboring Syria, Islamic State started fighting the government forces of Bashar al-Assad, regaining enough strength to renew their push for control in Iraq. Today, they control an area stretching from Diyala in Iraq, a province on the Iranian border, well into Syria. They also have aligned with certain Iraqi Sunnis who reject a Shia-led government or feel disenfranchised by Maliki's rule. Their ultimate goal is to form a caliphate, a kind of Islamic empire based on religious law.  They declared a caliphate in the areas they control.

What is the significance of the new Iraqi Council of Representatives (parliament) convening this week?

Based on Iraq's constitution and the results of the April 30 general election, the parliament is to elect a Speaker as well as the President of the republic, who will in turn ask the largest political bloc to form the government. The Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani and the U.S. have pressed for meeting the constitutional timeline to keep the political process alive, preserve its legitimacy and use it as the avenue to battle IS, to restore security and resolve Iraq's differences.

Many Iraqis hoped elections would end the country's political gridlock and provide a fresh start for sharing power equitably among Shia, Sunnis and Kurds. Failure to agree on an inclusive government that has the support of most ethnic and sectarian communities with real power-sharing risks not only the unravelling of the country, but also more violence that will drag in other countries of the region.

The Shia majority have been in power in Iraq since the fall of Saddam Hussein's minority Sunni regime. Why aren't they more willing to share power?

It's complicated. The past stirs a lot of fear that neither side has overcome. The Shia majority and the Kurds in the north have been persecuted in the past under Sunni minority rule, especially under Hussein's regime, and they feel that neither Sunnis in Iraq nor those elsewhere in the region have accepted the new Iraq with a Shia majority in government. Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia, for example, has still not opened an embassy in Baghdad.

Hussein's Baath Party also has a history of returning to power. They were forced out of power in 1963, but regained control in 1968 and stayed until the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Former Baathists are fighting alongside the Islamic State. More hardline Shia also feel the Sunnis have still been over-represented in government since 2005 because of U.S. influence.

What is the risk of Iraq breaking apart?

The risk is high if no political solution is reached. References to Iraq's territorial integrity tend to be based on an image of Iraq in the past 80 years. Anything less than a country centrally run and governed by a strongman is seen as a foreign plot or betrayal that leads to break up. But Hussein maintained control of the whole territory largely through armed rule, atrocities, chemical weapons and torture.

Despite the fact that the Iraqi constitution was rushed and many see it as flawed, it is an agreed framework that could provide alternatives to an Iraq held together with force or violently breaking apart. The central government has only reluctantly accepted the constitutional autonomy of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and sometimes has tried to limit its power. Central authorities also have rejected similar requests from regions such as Diyala and Salahaddin.

Compounding the difficulties, other parties have sought primarily to defend their own interests rather than considering how to build a country that serves everyone fairly. The result is that the very wrangling over the constitution, laws and how to apply them have become sources of conflict in themselves.

Is there an alternative to breakup?

The Iraqis need a real conversation about what democratic, pluralistic and federal Iraq means in practical terms to everyone. They need to compromise, but that compromise should not be coerced by use of force or other manipulation such as withholding budget approvals and revenue or demonizing the other.

How is this affecting smaller minority groups in Iraq, such as the Christians, Shabak and Yazidi?

The Iraqi minorities are significantly affected by Iraq's political, security, and economic disputes. Nineveh is home to many minority groups, including Christians, Shabak and Yazidi. The fall of Mosul and large parts of Nineveh to Islamic State control displaced many of these people, while the others in the Nineveh Plains, outside the control of the militants, received large numbers of the displaced minorities and others, estimated at 500,000 people.

Islamic State has attacked minority places of worship and desecrated them. The group also has targeted minorities through car bombs, mortar shelling and other forms of attack. A suicide bomber killed scores of Shabaks in Nineveh village. The minorities have always felt unprotected and particularly affected by Iraq's violence and instability. The number of Christians in Iraq has dropped by two-thirds, from 1.5 million in 2003 to 500,000 now. They fear that the new wave of violence is pushing more of them out.

How is this conflict affecting the larger region?

The Iraqi and Syrian conflicts have served as a single stage of operation for IS for a long time. IS has been moving fighters, weapons and cash across the border, which has been violated routinely since the start of the Syrian conflict, and now is wide open. Should Islamic State continue to exert such territorial control, it will likely attract other Jihadists, and the area will become a training ground for extremist militants and a launching pad for attacks on countries of the region and well beyond.

While there are many conspiracy theories about regional powers using the organization in their proxy wars, it is unlikely that those regional players will allow Islamic State to develop into a more powerful threat to them. Prime Minister Maliki and some Iranian leaders have, on different occasions, described the fight against IS in historic Shia-Sunni fighting terms. There is a real threat of deepening sectarianism that drags the whole region into a war.

What are possible non-violent approaches to this conflict?

The conflict is the by-product of internal, regional and international trends in politics, economics and security. So any durable solutions will have to come from the same quarters. Iraqi leaders need to form a government that is open to new ideas for ending the violence and establishing long-term peace and stability. The Iraqis have not been able to accomplish this on their own, because one group or another violates each agreement. International pressure could provide the needed monitoring to ensure agreements are carried out. Regional powers also have competing interests in Iraq, even if they agree on the desirability of holding Iraq together, and those regional players need outside cajoling too.

There also is a need for professionally designed community-level reconciliation process for healing within and among communities. As an example, Sunnis are fighting alongside IS against the central government, while others fight on the side of the government and still others take no side, yet are displaced or have lost loved ones, property and livelihoods. Shia see Sunnis as condoning and harboring terrorists. Regardless of whether Iraq splits or remains intact, neighbors will need peaceful approaches that bridge relations among those who are willing to reconcile for durable peace and stability.


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