Editor’s Note: John Kerry embarked this week on his first trip as U.S. secretary of state, an 11-day swing through Europe and the Middle East touching on a wide range of issues. Several of those issues flow from the dramatically changing political scene in parts of the Middle East and North Africa following the Arab Spring uprisings and the difficult transitions underway. Daniel Brumberg, senior adviser to USIP’s Center for Conflict Management and Prevention, focuses on two broad challenges [PDF] facing the countries in the region, as well as the United States and its international partners as they play a supporting role in the transitions.

The first challenge is to deal with security sector reform and the “standing up” of police, military and intelligence forces in ways that enhance rather than undercut democracy and internal political consensus in the Arab Spring countries. Popular anger with the expanding and unaccountable security forces in Tunisia and, especially, Egypt was a key factor in driving their political rebellions. In both cases, there has been little progress in reforming the police and security forces attached to the Interior ministries of both countries. It is not only that they have resisted efforts to bring in new leaders who are committed to the rule of law; in the last few months many of the old practices, such as extrajudicial detention and torture, have reappeared.

Part of the security-sector challenge is structural: These forces are part and parcel of what is often termed the “deep state.” They are secretive state-supported institutions and groups lacking public or civilian oversight and, by their very nature, cannot be reformed overnight.

But part of the problem is a lack of political will in the current governments, which by design or default are not willing to push for change. Indeed, in the case of Egypt, the country’s new constitution has in many ways enhanced the military’s power and autonomy. Popular discontent with the police—against a wider backdrop of unhappiness with the current government—will greatly complicate the plans for parliamentary elections in April and May of this year. As for Libya, the related but somewhat different problem is to deal with deteriorating security amid the continuing activities of armed militias, some of which have ties to al-Qaida’s North Africa affiliates. The very authority of the Libyan state is in question.

The second challenge is rising ideological and cultural-religious tension between secular and Islamist forces. In both Egypt and Tunisia, where Islamists dominate the government, the growing distrust between the two groups has undercut efforts to develop constitutional reforms that can garner popular support across the ideological divide.

Indeed, in Egypt secular forces believe that the Muslim Brotherhood’s allies in the cabinet and in the office of the presidency itself have dealt them out of the political game, or taken steps that left them irrelevant in the drafting of a constitution. The result is that Egypt is heading toward parliamentary elections with a constitution that is rejected by many Egyptians, including what seem to be significant parts of the large professional, urban middle class.

As for Tunisia, while the “troika” of three political parties, led by al Nahda, initially managed to produce some consensus, the effort to draft a constitution has been hung up by sharp debates over the rights of women and other matters. This political and ideological polarization took a major turn for the worse with the February 6 assassination of Chokri Belaid, an important spokesman for the secular parties.

In the wake of this tragedy, protests erupted and the government basically fell apart, as leaders disagreed over whether to appoint a “technocratic” government or a government of national unity representing all the parties. The effort to forge a compromise position led to the resignation of Prime Minister Hamadi Jebali and the designation of the former Minister of Interior, Ali Larayedh, as his replacement. But the present government remains weak.

These trends are partly a consequence of the rising activism of Salafist Islamist groups, which have put pressure on more mainstream Islamist parties to resist compromise with secular groups. In Tunisia, the secularists blame Nahda for failing to control the Salafists, while Nahda supporters assert that secular groups are merely using the Salafist issue to discredit all Islamists. This growing divide threatens the viability of the parliamentary elections, currently scheduled for June.

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Daniel Brumberg is a senior adviser to USIP’s Center for Conflict Management and Prevention.

Explore Further

• The Politics of Security Reform in Egypt, Special Report | October 2012
• USIP Experts Launch Mideast Security Series at Wilson Center Event
• Al-Qaida on the Rise in North Africa?
• Jordan Election Turnout Masks Risk of Shaky Economy and King’s Restive Base

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