WASHINGTON - The U.S. Institute of Peace released a major report today on Iran and Iraq: The Shia Connection, Soft Power, and the Nuclear Factor, which underscores Iran's critical relationship with post-Hussein Iraq. Furthermore, it highlights how Iran's relations with the United States, other countries in the region, and the international community could impact regional stability.

"The greatest threat to regional stability with respect to Iran and Iraq currently revolves around the Iranian nuclear issue," writes Geoffrey Kemp, the report's author. Iran currently works to influence the political environment in Iraq through economic investment and social ties; however, it has built the capacity to retaliate forcefully should U.S.-Iran relations change. "Should the United States up the ante against Iran with respect to nuclear weapons, it will undoubtedly be in Iraq and Afghanistan that Iran retaliates," he writes.

The report describes the sort of regime Tehran would like to see emerge in Iraq, comparing them to two "worst-case scenarios." Finally, it outlines how Iran has intervened in Iraq since the end of the Baathist regime to assure that whatever the outcome, Iran's interests are represented. The report comments on U.S. policy toward Iran, arguing for a more coherent policy as well as direct dialogue with Tehran.

The report is part of the Institute's "Iraq and its Neighbors" research project which brings together leading specialists on the geopolitics of the region to assess prospects for increasing cooperation between the U.S., Iraq, and Iraq's neighbors. The first report in the series, Turkey and Iraq: The Perils (and Prospects) or Proximity, was published in July.

About the Author
Geoffrey Kemp is the director of regional strategic programs at the Nixon Center in Washington, D.C. He was senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs on the National Security Council staff during the first Reagan administration.

For more information, please contact Iris Pilika in the Office of Public Affairs and Communications at (202) 429-3828 or at ipilika@usip.org.