Post-conflict, post-totalitarian societies like Iraq possess many economic, political, social, and cultural characteristics that are not conducive to democratic governance. A central pillar of democracy promotion is that judicious institutional engineering--crafting new institutions and other elements outlining the democratic rules of the game--can overcome these obstacles and engender stable democracies.

222

Summary

  • Post-conflict, post-totalitarian societies like Iraq possess many economic, political, social, and cultural characteristics that are not conducive to democratic governance. A central pillar of democracy promotion is that judicious institutional engineering--crafting new institutions and other elements outlining the democratic rules of the game--can overcome these obstacles and engender stable democracies.
  •  Two theories explain the success or failure of institutional engineering: institutions as causes, or institutions as indicators. The first theory states that constitutions, electoral systems, and other components of democratic governance are the direct causes of democratic stability or collapse.
  • The second theory states that institutions are indicators, not causes. Like barometers, they allow us to forecast impending storms or calm weather, but they do not cause these phenomena.
  • Many methodological weaknesses are evident in the studies that supposedly support the "institutions as causes" theory. One type results from nonrandom selection of units. A second type results from nonrandom assignment to treatment. Left uncorrected, these weaknesses generate inaccurate and uncertain estimates of causal effects and may invalidate many studies of institutional design.
  •  Different types of methodological corrections for these biases exist, some statistical, others qualitative. All of them demand that we first model the selection process before estimating the effects of institutions; we must identify the origins of institutions to evaluate their effects correctly.
  • By using a method called process tracing to scrutinize institutional engineering in Iraq, it becomes clear why intensified violence followed the drafting and ratification of the Iraqi constitution. It is not surprising that institutional engineering did not forestall violence; therefore, we can conclude that the Iraqi experience does not support theories of institutional design.
  • Although the "institutions as causes" approach claims that "getting the institutions right" can create a stable democracy in otherwise unfavorable conditions, it is imperative to view the studies that support it with skepticism. Nonetheless, these weaknesses do not completely dismiss the theory of institutional engineering. One study of one country can never produce a definitive conclusion. Instead, policymakers should pay closer attention to the methodological underpinnings of all findings based on case studies and other forms of observational research.

About the Report

David Waldner teaches courses on economic development, democratization, and methodology at the University of Virginia. He is the author of State Building and Late Development. His current book projects are Democracy and Dictatorship in the Post-Colonial World and Causation, Explanation, and the Study of Politics. His research on democracy and dictatorship in the Middle East has been supported by a grant from the United States Institute of Peace.

 

 


Latest Publications

China’s Global Security Initiative Takes Shape in Southeast and Central Asia

China’s Global Security Initiative Takes Shape in Southeast and Central Asia

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Since Chinese leader Xi Jinping launched the Global Security Initiative (GSI) in April 2022, it has been used in China’s efforts to expand its international security role and reshape global order. Drawing on field research and discussions with regional policymakers and experts, this report looks at Beijing’s progress in implementing and operationalizing the GSI in the priority regions of mainland Southeast Asia and Central Asia, and it examines key policy implications, explaining why the initiative warrants greater attention on the part of the US policy community.

Type: Special Report

Global Policy

A Delicate Balance: Promoting Nuclear Energy While Preventing Proliferation

A Delicate Balance: Promoting Nuclear Energy While Preventing Proliferation

Thursday, November 21, 2024

As global energy demands intensify and the urgency of addressing climate shocks mounts, the role of nuclear energy has come to the forefront of discussions for governments, businesses and those concerned about sustainable development. Just last week, the Biden administration released a plan to triple U.S. nuclear capacity by 2050. While nuclear energy promises efficiency gains and significant emissions reductions, public opinion remains divided about the tradeoffs of increased investment, the safety risks and the implications for international security. This puts the U.S. at a crossroads as it tries to navigate its role in a world with new demands for nuclear energy and heightened risks of conflict between nuclear-armed states. Such risks were highlighted this week when Russia lowered its nuclear threshold in response to new U.S. authorizations for Ukraine to use long-range weapons.

Type: Analysis

EnvironmentGlobal Policy

Iraq’s Lingering ISIS Challenge and the Role of Dialogue in Return and Reintegration

Iraq’s Lingering ISIS Challenge and the Role of Dialogue in Return and Reintegration

Thursday, November 21, 2024

With conflicts raging in Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine and Sudan, concerns related to the extremist group ISIS may seem overtaken by these other conflicts. After all, Iraq declared the group’s military defeat in 2017 after the territory held by the extremists was retaken by Iraqi government forces in partnership with the United States. Yet just over a month ago, U.S. and Iraqi forces conducted a joint military raid against the group, killing nine senior ISIS leaders who were hiding in the rugged Hamrin Mountains in northern Iraq. This raid comes off the heels of the UK’s domestic intelligence chief stating that the group is positioning itself as a resurgent threat. Indeed, ISIS has conducted over 150 attacks so far this year in Iraq and Syria, more than those claimed by the group in 2023.

Type: Analysis

ReconciliationViolent Extremism

Four Questions that Could Determine Haiti’s Future

Four Questions that Could Determine Haiti’s Future

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Much has happened in Haiti over the past two weeks — none of it is reassuring. The Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) fired Prime Minister Garry Conille on November 10, after only six months in office. Moments before an interim prime minister was sworn in the next day, a U.S. commercial airliner was struck by gunfire, forcing a pause in flights to Haiti’s international airport. These developments underscore the reality facing Haiti's interim government and the immense challenges it faces in achieving a transition by February 2026, as outlined in an April 3, 2024 agreement. Given this dysfunction, Haitians and their international partners are rightly concerned that the country’s evolving political and security crisis will only further deepen.

Type: Analysis

Fragility & Resilience

إطار بناء السلام التركيز على الشباب

Friday, May 3, 2024

Read in English Leer en español إطار بناء السلام المتمحور حول الشباب هو دليل وظيفي يقترح نهجا عمليا للتركيز على الشباب في تدخلات بناء السلام. يطبق هذا الدليل مفهوم مشاركة الشباب، بدءا من المبادئ الأس

Type: Tools for Peacebuilding

Education & TrainingYouth

View All Publications