The Quest for Nuclear Disarmament in South Asia: A Reality Check
Pakistan and India are defying the global trend toward reduction in nuclear arsenals. This Peace Brief looks at several reasons for this prognosis.
Summary
- Pakistan and India are defying the global trend toward reduction in nuclear arsenals.
- Both countries are expanding their arsenals and are unlikely to jump on the disarmament bandwagon.
- There are several reasons for this grim prognosis: both have active conflicts and recurring crises; Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent is tied to India’s conventional strength and thus it will not consider nuclear disarmament until New Delhi reduces its conventional arsenal; neither India, nor Pakistan will be comfortable with their nuclear strength in the near future; their official stances on global non-proliferation initiatives complicate matters; and the world has failed to do its bit to lure these two states to the non-proliferation regime.
- Indian and Pakistani concerns about the current global non-proliferation protocols need to be addressed.
- Equally important, efforts should be made to enhance strategic stability in South Asia; crisis prevention and crisis management protocols are critical in this regard.
About this Brief
The content of this Peace Brief benefitted from views expressed at two recent USIP public events on South Asian nuclear weapons. On April 14, 2010, USIP hosted a seminar on “Atomic Pakistan: Building a Nuclear Arsenal in a Disarming World” that specifically debated Pakistan’s nuclear weapons strategy and its position on ‘Global Zero.’ The second event, “South Asia in the Age of Nuclear Weapons and Space Security,” focused on the South Asian nuclear, missile and space rivalry and was held on May 11, 2010.
Moeed W. Yusuf is the South Asia adviser at USIP’s Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention and is responsible for managing the Institute’s Pakistan program. Ashley Pandya is a program assistant with the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention.
