The impact of Iran’s youth on the political, economic and social agenda of the country over the next 25 years is important for U.S. policymakers to consider when facing complex decisions in balancing Iran’s nuclear program and its internal political turmoil.

51

Summary

  • Youth is the largest population bloc in Iran. Over 60 percent of Iran’s 73 million people are under 30 years old.
  • Iranian youth are among the most politically active in the 57 nations of the Islamic world. As the most restive segment of Iranian society, the young also represent one of the greatest longterm threats to the current form of theocratic rule.
  • Young activists have influenced the Islamic Republic’s political agenda since 1997. After the 2009 presidential election, youth was the biggest bloc involved in the region’s first sustained“people power” movement for democratic change, creating a new political dynamic in the Middle East.
  • The Islamic Republic forcibly regained control over the most rebellious sector of society through detentions, expulsions from universities, and expanding the powers of its own young paramilitary forces.
  • But youth demands have not changed, and anger seethes deeply beneath the surface. The regime also remains vulnerable because it has failed to address basic socioeconomic problems among the young.

About This Brief

This Peace Brief highlights how Iran’s youth are one of the two main agents of change, along with women, now challenging the rigid Islamic rule. Since January 2010, the regime regained control over the opposition’s protests in all public arenas—except for university campuses. This brief is co-sponsored by USIP’s Jennings Randolph Fellowship Program and the Youth and Peacebuilding Working Group in USIP’s Centers of Innovation.

Co-author Omid Memarian is an Iranian-born journalist and blogger who specializes in youth and human rights issues, and Tara Nesvaderani is a research assistant at the U.S. Institute of Peace. 


Related Publications

What the Houthi-Israel Exchange Might Mean for Escalation in the Middle East

What the Houthi-Israel Exchange Might Mean for Escalation in the Middle East

Wednesday, July 24, 2024

The Middle East saw yet another escalatory episode over the weekend, as Israel and Yemen’s Houthis exchanged fire. On July 19, the Iran-backed Houthis launched an unprecedented drone attack on Israel, which hit an apartment building in downtown Tel Aviv, killing one and injuring at least 10 others. It was the first time that the Houthis killed or even harmed an Israeli, despite launching dozens of missile attacks on Israel since October 7. The next day, Israel struck back with an airstrike on the strategic port of Hodeida, marking the first time it attacked Yemen. The Israeli attack killed six, injured dozens more and left ablaze key oil facilities in the area.

Type: Question and Answer

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Robin Wright on What to Expect from Iran’s New President

Robin Wright on What to Expect from Iran’s New President

Wednesday, July 10, 2024

The election of reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s new president dealt a “stunning blow in many ways to the hardliners,” says USIP’s Robin Wright. However, “the hardliners still have control of the legislature and the judiciary, and they can create havoc for the new president” and his agenda.

Type: Podcast

What You Need to Know About Iran’s Election and New President

What You Need to Know About Iran’s Election and New President

Tuesday, July 9, 2024

In a clear challenge to regime hardliners, Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist and cardiac surgeon, won Iran’s snap presidential election on July 5. The elections were called after President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19. The runoff had been considered a tight race, but Pezeshkian won decisively with almost three million more votes than Saeed Jalili, a hardliner and former nuclear negotiator. Due to take office in August, Pezeshkian, a former deputy speaker of parliament and health minister, will take power as Iran’s government faces legitimacy challenges amid an economic crisis.

Type: Question and Answer

Global Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

What Does Further Expansion Mean for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

What Does Further Expansion Mean for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

Thursday, May 30, 2024

Last week, foreign ministers from member-states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) gathered in Astana, Kazakhstan. The nine-member SCO — made up of China, India, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — represents one of the largest regional organizations in the world. And with the SCO’s annual heads-of-state summit slated for early July, the ministers’ meeting offers an important glimpse into the group’s priorities going forward. USIP’s Bates Gill and Carla Freeman examine how regional security made its way to the top of the agenda, China’s evolving role in Central Asia and why SCO expansion has led to frustrations among member states.

Type: Question and Answer

Global Policy

View All Publications