February 2, 2011 | Updated: 10:43am

FALLOUT FROM MUBARAK’S SPEECH – After several days of relatively peaceful protests, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak addressed the nation Tuesday, saying he would not seek re-election this September, but planned to stay in office for now. But his announcement did little to appease protesters, as new waves of violence arose in Cairo’s Tahrir Square and elsewhere in the country. After Mubarak’s speech, his supporters took to the streets, clashing with opposition demonstrators.

“I would tie [the clashes] directly to Mubarak’s speech," says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian. “I think it’s pretty clear that Mubarak is saying in no uncertain terms that he’s not leaving.” Mubarak’s speech, she says, was “too little, too late.”

In Washington, DC, President Barack Obama said Tuesday evening that a peaceful transition must happen – now. Obama said he had told the Egyptian leader in a telephone call that “the status quo is not sustainable.”

Meanwhile, earlier Tuesday, the U.S. had sent special envoy Ambassador Frank Wisner to gently encourage Mubarak to step aside. That Mubarak appears determined to stay in power until the September elections is an “ominous turn,” Yacoubian says, “and underscores the volatility of the situation and the fact that President Mubarak insists on transitioning on his own terms is leading to dangerous days ahead in Egypt.” Amid such growing uncertainty, the U.S. State Department on Tuesday ordered the evacuation of all nonessential personnel and family out of Cairo, and planned to fly more U.S. citizens out of the country.

• Read President Obama’s full statement
• Read Mona Yacoubian’s op-ed in Politico

HOW COULD A NEW GOVERNMENT IMPACT ISRAEL? – Analysts say a new government may not be as friendly to the U.S. and may view regional stability differently than the current Mubarak government. If – and to what degree – the 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel would fall into jeopardy is unknown. Civilian and military officials in Israel look with much concern across the border.

“The U.S. has of course been complicit in Mubarak’s rule, focusing more on the country’s role as a regional ally and peace partner to Israel, than on encouraging a more open and democratic form of government,” USIP’s Steve Riskin says. “Viewing that balance as almost an ‘either / or’ proposition, the U.S. missed an opportunity to promote democracy in the Arab world’s largest country.” There is still time to encourage such a transition, Riskin continues, but it comes with risks. “The transition to democracy and, indeed, a functioning democracy itself will come with risks and uncertainties—uncertainties inherent in any democracy.”

• Learn about the Institute’s recent work on Israel
• Read the report, “In Pursuit of Democracy and Security in the Greater Middle East”

RIPPLES ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST – Egypt’s demonstrations continue to have ripple effects in places like Yemen, Jordan and other countries in the Middle East.

Reminiscent to Egypt, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh confirmed that he won’t run for re-election in 2013 – and won’t hand the country’s reins to his son either. Saleh’s announcement comes one day before a planned mass protest in Yemen’s capital to call for an end of his government – as Yemenis are inspired by the events in Tunisia and Egypt. Aidarous al-Nakeeb, head of the opposition socialist party bloc in Yemen’s parliament, told Bloomberg that because the president’s announcement failed to address an urgent need for changes, the demonstration would go on as planned. 

IN JORDAN – King Abdullah II fired his government, removed the prime minister and replaced him with a former diplomat and general who pledged reforms. The new prime minister, Marouf al-Bakhit, told The New York Times that his objective would be to “take tangible steps to social, political and economic reform and give priority to dialogue and all segments of society.”

The king has replaced his government eight times in his 12 years on the throne, The New York Times reports. “But this was the first time that he had done so in reaction to public pressure, seeking to undermine a growing protest movement across a broad spectrum of society and to preempt further unrest,” Times reporters Ranya Kadri and Ethan Bronner write. The correlation between the protests in Egypt and developments in Jordan was becoming increasingly clear. “The longer this goes on, the more of an impact we will see in the region,” says USIP’s Yacoubian. | Learn about Mona Yacoubian’s work

January 31, 2011 | Updated: 1:43pm

U.S. SUPPORT FOR OPPOSITION IN EGYPT GROWS – President Barack Obama is calling for an “orderly transition” in Egypt in conversations with foreign leaders – but without yet specifically calling for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to step down. Over the weekend Obama spoke with leaders in Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the U.K., expressing his concern about violence in Egypt while “calling for restraint,” according to a readout of the conversations from the White House. Obama reiterated his support for human rights, including the right to peaceful assembly – as well as his support for a transition to a government that is “responsive to the aspirations of the Egyptian people,” according to the White House statement.

A COMMITMENT TO DIALOGUE – Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, traveling in Haiti, appeared on five Sunday talk shows to talk about Haiti -- and Egypt. She steered clear of saying Mubarak should resign, but also kept her comments vague. “There has to be a commitment by whoever is in the government that they will engage in a national dialogue with the people of Egypt, with the aim at taking actions that will meet the legitimate grievances of the Egyptian people for more participation, for respect for human rights, for the universal human rights that they are entitled to, for economic reforms that they will give more opportunity for people,” she told reporters en route to Haiti. “And we want to see that happen.” | Transcripts of all Clinton’s recent appearances.

A NEW VICE PRESIDENT – After years of urging by the U.S. that he do so, Mubarak appointed a vice president over the weekend, elevating intelligence chief Omar Suleiman to the country’s number two spot. Suleiman was seen as key in the Arab-Israeli peace talks and is respected among American diplomats and others. But his age and closeness to the Mubarak regime may limit just how much he could influence Egypt’s future. USIP’s Steve Heydemann says Suleiman could step up during the crisis and emerge as a true transitional force, or side with the Mubarak regime. “If against all odds, he is prepared to bring the regime into a process of negotiation… I think we’ve crossed the Rubicon, and we’re there. If he hems and haws, if he resists, then I think we see a more confrontational scenario.”

WHAT IS THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD DOING? – The country’s largest opposition group raises concern among some analysts because of their alleged ties to terrorism and other illegal activity. These concerns may be overblown, says USIP’s Steve Heydemann, who notes that the group is playing it wisely by not pushing hard to be at the forefront of the current protest movement. “That is very smart of them” to be circumspect during the crisis, Heydemann says, explaining that they otherwise might create a backlash within the Egyptian military that the U.S. would likely have to support. | Read Radio Free Europe’s analysis on the group: “The Muslim Brotherhood: Radical Islamists or Reluctant Democrats?”  and USIP’s “Opposition Alliances and Democratization in Egypt”

PARALLELS BETWEEN IRAN’S GREEN REVOLUTION AND THE CRISES IN TUNISIA AND EGYPT? – USIP’S Dan Brumberg responds: “The Green Revolution represents, for the most part, the mass mobilization of the urban middle classes in Iran. I would say the same thing applies to Egypt. Moreover, in both cases, education and development, under the umbrella of autocratic states, have done much to enlarge this middle class. But the political systems are very different: there is a far more elaborate system of mobilization and control in Iran, and what is more, it is blessed and enforced by a kind of semi-theocracy led by a Supreme Leader whose authority, he claims (and not a few Iranians believe) comes from God,” Brumberg says. “This religious base of authority remains a serious impediment to democratization. Moreover, and moving from this previous point, while Iran's leaders face many opponents, they have used state institutions to sustain a base among the rural and urban poor. Furthermore, they have at their disposal, not the military, but a mass praetorian guard -- The Revolutionary Guard and ‘Basij’ whose numbers, in the millions, can be mobilized quickly. So there are simply huge internal constraints in Iran.” “Finally, Iran lacks the external constraints present in Egypt: Mubarak is an ally of the U.S.: this could work both ways, depending on how the U.S. plays it: if the U.S. presses the Egyptian army to do the right thing, the process may move forward in Egypt. We have no similar influence in Iran, obviously.” | Read the rest of Brumberg’s comments

THE AMERICAN POLICY DILEMMA –The U.S. finds itself in familiar territory as it navigates the right path to take. According to analysis by the Associated Press: “The turmoil in Egypt — and its potential for grave consequences for U.S. policy throughout the region — was inevitable. The recent WikiLeaks release of U.S. diplomatic reports showed that Washington knew what problems it increasingly faced with the regime of President Hosni Mubarak and his three decades of iron-fisted rule,” AP’s Steven R. Hurst wrote today. “As importantly, the U.S. handling of Egyptian uprising, regardless of how it plays out, now has other close American friends in the Middle East — particularly in Saudi Arabia and Jordan — watching closely, looking for foreshadowing of what might be in store for them.” | Read the AP story

WHAT ROLE IS THE MILITARY PLAYING? – Egypt’s military has continued to stand by the Mubarak government and also allowed the protests to continue over the weekend. But the current crisis is a test of the efficacy of American military aid to Egypt, reports The Washington Post’s Howard Schneider and Greg Jaffe: “The arrival of tanks and troops in Cairo's streets seemed to calm a tense situation, suggesting that the Egyptian military will play a key role as the country navigates its way out of the current crisis. On Saturday, soldiers seemed largely to sympathize with the throngs of protesters,” they wrote. “The massive amounts of defense aid - which have made Egypt's military one of the more effective forces in the region and yielded a relatively stable and wealthy officer class - will probably give the United States some critical leverage, Middle East analysts said.”

January 28, 2011 | Updated:  5:02pm

Popular protests against the Egyptian government escalated into the third day, as the military and police cracked down on student demonstrators and the national airline suspended service.

Meanwhile, a U.S. official told the Associated Press that American aid to Egypt is now under review. President Barack Obama is receiving hourly updates of the situation, as analysts say the future stability of President Hosni Mubarak’s government appeared to be in the balance. Protests still appear to be student-led, disorganized and leaderless. Demonstrators were attempting to raid the foreign ministry and the state TV building in Cairo, according to the AP.  By Friday, protests were spreading, from Cairo, Suez and Alexandria, to several other cities in this North African country.

“DEEP CONCERN” FROM FOGGY BOTTOM – Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in Washington, DC urged Egyptian authorities to restore Internet services and allow peaceful protests.

“We are deeply concerned about the use of violence by Egyptian police and security forces against protesters and we call on the Egyptian government to do everything in its power to restrain the security forces,” Clinton said at the State Department on Jan. 28. “At the same time, protesters should refrain from violence and express themselves peacefully.”

ANTICIPATING EGYPT’S RESPONSE – Steven Heydemann, USIP’s special adviser to the Muslim World Initiative, said he thinks Mubarak’s government will put enough troops into the streets to restore order and bring the protests to an end. “I think it’s going to be messy, I think it could take some time,” he noted. “But both the police and the military are committed to the security of the regime to ensure that that happens.”

Heydemann predicted a “known” figure will emerge to replace Mubarak soon, an individual with whom the military and Mubarak himself is comfortable.  

But little will happen until order is restored. “Once that happens, Mubarak will likely extend his hand,” said USIP’s Dan Brumberg, senior adviser for the Institute’s Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention. Brumberg said he thought the Egyptian military would lean on Mubarak to leave and that either a senior member of the military or Egyptian opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei, a former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, could step into the void left by Mubarak.

“BRITTLE” REGIMES – USIP senior adviser and former National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said earlier today on MSNBC’s “The Daily Rundown” that many “authoritarian regimes like the one in Egypt” are “brittle.” Hadley predicted that the only way Mubarak can turn the situation around is to send a message to all Egyptians. “The only way [Mubarak] is going to save himself is if he can show to the Egyptian people he’s gotten the message and is willing to have a political opening and economic reform,” Hadley said.

Explore Further

• USIP Tracks the Unfolding Situation in Egypt
  Check here for a comprehensive look at the situation in Egypt.
• Former U.S. Ambassador on Initial Days of Protest
  By Daniel C. Kurtzer, former U.S. ambassador to Egypt
• Shibley Telhami on Egypt
  By Shibley Telhami, former USIP Board Member (2000-2002)
• Egypt Today: Historical Context of the Protests
  By Qamar-ul Huda, senior program officer, Religion and Peacemaking Center of Innovation
• Read more: USIP Tracks the Unfolding Situation in Egypt