On Thursday, China’s ambassador, Ma Shengkun, presented his credentials at Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry. Ma, a career diplomat with a background in arms control, replaces Fan Xianrong who had held the post for the past four and a half years. While a diplomatic reshuffle was due, the timing of the turnover and the selection of Ma, in tandem with other recent developments, suggest that China discerns a gradual gathering of momentum for a peace process or truce talks in coming months. In short, Beijing may be seeking to posture itself in anticipation of a new initiative to end — or at least pause — the war in Ukraine.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

With President Joe Biden’s presidential term ending in a few weeks, expectations for his final meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping were modest, especially considering the broader frictions in U.S.-China relations. Biden and Xi met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru on November 16. The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining open communications channels to manage the two powers’ many differences.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Since Chinese leader Xi Jinping launched the Global Security Initiative (GSI) in April 2022, it has been used in China’s efforts to expand its international security role and reshape global order. Drawing on field research and discussions with regional policymakers and experts, this report looks at Beijing’s progress in implementing and operationalizing the GSI in the priority regions of mainland Southeast Asia and Central Asia, and it examines key policy implications, explaining why the initiative warrants greater attention on the part of the US policy community.

Type: Special Report

Global Policy

As global energy demands intensify and the urgency of addressing climate shocks mounts, the role of nuclear energy has come to the forefront of discussions for governments, businesses and those concerned about sustainable development. Just last week, the Biden administration released a plan to triple U.S. nuclear capacity by 2050. While nuclear energy promises efficiency gains and significant emissions reductions, public opinion remains divided about the tradeoffs of increased investment, the safety risks and the implications for international security. This puts the U.S. at a crossroads as it tries to navigate its role in a world with new demands for nuclear energy and heightened risks of conflict between nuclear-armed states. Such risks were highlighted this week when Russia lowered its nuclear threshold in response to new U.S. authorizations for Ukraine to use long-range weapons.

Type: Analysis

Environment;  Global Policy

With conflicts raging in Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine and Sudan, concerns related to the extremist group ISIS may seem overtaken by these other conflicts. After all, Iraq declared the group’s military defeat in 2017 after the territory held by the extremists was retaken by Iraqi government forces in partnership with the United States. Yet just over a month ago, U.S. and Iraqi forces conducted a joint military raid against the group, killing nine senior ISIS leaders who were hiding in the rugged Hamrin Mountains in northern Iraq. This raid comes off the heels of the UK’s domestic intelligence chief stating that the group is positioning itself as a resurgent threat. Indeed, ISIS has conducted over 150 attacks so far this year in Iraq and Syria, more than those claimed by the group in 2023.

Type: Analysis

Reconciliation;  Violent Extremism