Frank Aum discusses the Korean Peninsula, and whether there is a pathway to keep the peaceful momentum going after the Olympic Games. Aum also tells us about the effect of international sanctions on North Korea and China’s interests.
On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.
Until late October, the big questions about China’s role in the Ukraine conflict centered around whether Beijing would choose to expand its support for Russia to include lethal aid, or if it might engage in more active peacemaking to end the conflict. Then, on November 4, the Pentagon confirmed that North Korea sent more than 10,000 troops to Russia’s Kursk oblast, where Ukraine had captured some territory earlier this year. Days later, the State Department confirmed that North Korean soldiers had begun fighting Ukrainian troops.
The Ukraine war is taking a new turn with the involvement of North Korean soldiers. Washington estimates that, so far, North Korea has sent approximately 10,000 troops to Russia — around 8,000 of whom have been deployed to the western region of Kursk, where Ukraine seized territory in a surprise attack earlier this year. And as U.S. officials predicted in late October, North Korean troops have reportedly begun engaging in direct combat.
After signing a mutual defense pledge in June, North Korea and Russia relations appear to be deepening. U.S. officials confirmed last week that North Korean troops, including elite special forces, were in Russia for training and potentially combat operations against Ukraine. This represents a “dangerous expansion of the war,” according to U.S. and NATO officials. It could also have serious ramifications for peace and security on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea is concerned that the deployment of North Korean troops could provide them valuable combat and technical experience. Meanwhile, China is watching closely to see what this means for its influence over North Korea and the implications for broader geopolitical tensions with the West.
At the 28th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2023, the United States and South Korea, alongside 18 like-minded countries, endorsed the “Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy.” By joining the initiative, the countries agreed to augment domestic nuclear energy production to fight climate change and to promote the safe application of civil nuclear energy at home and abroad. As tensions on the Korean Peninsula rise and U.S.-North Korea and inter-Korean relations remain at a stalemate, however, this commitment could also inspire potential engagement with North Korea beyond traditional security dynamics.