Iran, proud and passionate, has been a conundrum since its 1979 revolution. It stunned the world by introducing Islam as a form of modern governance. It rattled the region by exporting its zealous ideology; it sired or sponsored militant allies from Lebanon to the Gulf. It also unnerved both East and West by defiantly challenging international norms. For decades, a confluence of challenges—political and cultural repression, menacing rhetoric, and defiance over its nuclear program—complicated dealing with the Islamic Republic. The patterns of Iran’s four-decade revolution—whether in domestic politics, foreign policy, the economy, or social sphere—have often been determined by the dominant political faction of the day. Iran’s revolution has passed through at least five phases:

The first phase was the Khomeini decade from 1979 until the ayatollah’s death in 1989. It was a tumultuous period of revolutionary extremes that included killing off supporters of the ancien regime, taking foreigners hostage, and fostering zealotry across the Islamic world. The turmoil was exacerbated by an eight-year war with Iraq that became the Middle East’s bloodiest modern conflict. It produced more than one million casualties (deaths and injuries). Iran was widely viewed as an international pariah throughout the revolution’s first decade.

The second phase coincided with the two terms of President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, from 1989 until 1997. The revolution’s early passions were replaced by a hard-earned pragmatism, produced in part by excesses that backfired against the clerics and exhausted the population. Under Rafsanjani, arrogance gave way to a conservative realism. The government of God increasingly ceded to secular statecraft.

The third phase between 1997 and 2005 coincided with the reformist era of President Mohammad Khatami, a dark horse former cabinet minister who tapped into the groundswell of interest in political openings. The government improved relations with its own people as well as the outside world. Iran temporarily had a freer press, freer speech, wider debate, relaxed social restrictions and a burgeoning civil society. But parliament failed to legislate reforms. By the end of Khatami’s two terms, a political schism had developed between the regime headed by the supreme leader and the government headed by the president. 

The fourth phase between 2005 and 2013 coincided with the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The little-known mayor of Tehran won an upset election over Rafsanjani. The emergence of hardliners reflected three broader shifts: Disillusionment with politics led many, especially young Iranians and women, to boycott the poll. Public anger swelled against the clergy, especially Rafsanjani, for corruption and failing to improve the average Iranian’s life in a quarter century. And a second generation of revolutionaries hardened by the Iran-Iraq War, largely laymen, began to challenge the clerics who ended the monarchy.

The fifth phase began with the 2013 election of President Hassan Rouhani, a cleric and former national security advisor. In a field of six candidates, he campaigned on a platform of “hope and prudence” to end the economic crises and resolve the international showdown over Iran’s nuclear program. Rouhani represented the rise of realists and centrists in both foreign and domestic policies. He worked to undo years of economic mismanagement bringing down inflation from nearly 40 percent to under 10 percent in his first term. 

Rouhani’s chief achievement during his first term was reaching an agreement with six world powers—Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United States—over Iran’s controversial nuclear program. Iran agreed to dismantle facilities, reduce enrichment and allow U.N. inspections in exchange for sanctions relief. The 2015 deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was slow to deliver economic benefits. In 2017, Rouhani won a second term with 57 percent of the vote. President Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May 2018 jeopardized Rouhani’s legacy.

This timeline was assembled with the help of graphic research by Lindsay Jodoin and Farah Oraby, and editorial research by Garrett Nada.


Related Publications

What Does Further Expansion Mean for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

What Does Further Expansion Mean for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

Thursday, May 30, 2024

Last week, foreign ministers from member-states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) gathered in Astana, Kazakhstan. The nine-member SCO — made up of China, India, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — represents one of the largest regional organizations in the world. And with the SCO’s annual heads-of-state summit slated for early July, the ministers’ meeting offers an important glimpse into the group’s priorities going forward. USIP’s Bates Gill and Carla Freeman examine how regional security made its way to the top of the agenda, China’s evolving role in Central Asia and why SCO expansion has led to frustrations among member states.

Type: Question and Answer

Global Policy

Robin Wright on Raisi’s Death and What It Means for Iran

Robin Wright on Raisi’s Death and What It Means for Iran

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

With the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, the Iranian regime has reached “a critical turning point.” And with just two weeks until the vote to replace him, it’s important to pay attention to “not only who wins the new presidency, but how many Iranians actually participate in the process,” says USIP’s Robin Wright.

Type: Podcast

What’s Next for Iran After Raisi’s Death?

What’s Next for Iran After Raisi’s Death?

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

On May 19, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and six other passengers and crew died in a helicopter crash. The aircraft went down in dense fog in a mountainous region of East Azerbaijan province in northwestern Iran. The officials were returning from the opening ceremony for a dam on the border with Azerbaijan. Less than 72 hours after Raisi’s death, the focus has turned to the political changes that come next with elections slated for June 28.

Type: Question and Answer

Democracy & GovernanceGlobal Policy

Iran’s Attack and the New Escalatory Cycle in the Middle East

Iran’s Attack and the New Escalatory Cycle in the Middle East

Tuesday, April 16, 2024

The Middle East is entering a new phase after unprecedented attacks by Israel and Iran during the first two weeks of April. Robin Wright, a senior fellow at USIP and the Woodrow Wilson Center who has covered the region for a half century, explores what happened, the strategic implications, the political context and the divided world reaction.

Type: Question and Answer

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

View All Publications