U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: We're joined now by Heather Ashby, the Senior Program Officer for the Center for Russia and Europe at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Dr. Ashby joined the USIP, after seven years with the Department of Homeland Security, where she worked at the intersection of homeland security and international affairs. And she's focused on U.S.-Russia relations at the D.H.S. as well. She joins us here, Heather, welcome, and good morning. How are you?

Heather Ashby: I'm doing great. How are you doing?

Laura Coates: I'm great. Thank you for joining us so much. And I appreciate hearing from you today. Because I've been hearing, and I think many of us had about the Grain Deal pull out. And I just wanted to take step back for a moment and understand more the significance of this decision.

Heather Ashby: It's a very significant decision, especially when we think about world food prices. Ukraine and Russia are some of the largest exporters of fertilizer, grain, seeds that go into sunflower oil that are used by countries, particularly in the global south. So, by Russia pulling out, it creates more pressure on global food prices.

Laura Coates: So, this decision, though, what why was this decision made? What is it about?

Heather Ashby: And so, the decision was made by Russia. So, it didn't involve Ukraine pulling out, the UN creating issues for both sides, it was really a sole decision by the Russian government. And they pulled out because they want greater ability to ship its own grain and fertilizer under the agreement. And they also want their agricultural agency reconnected to the global swift financial system. And so those were some of the issues that Russia listed as their justification from pulling out of the Grain Deal.

Laura Coates: Is that a genuine argument or disingenuous? It's difficult sometimes to assess the real motivation, particularly given we're, you know, well over a year and a half into a war with, I say we, they, of course, are into a war with Ukraine, which is known as the breadbasket of Europe, is that a genuine argument?

Heather Ashby: Sort of in the sense that every nation has their own right to want to export their goods. Leaving that aside, Russia is heavily under sanction, justifiably, for their illegal invasion of Ukraine. And so, it's just another Russian negotiation tactic with this agreement, to force the parties to agree to lift certain restrictions on Russia, which shouldn't happen because they continue to execute this war against Ukraine.

Laura Coates: So, looking ahead, I mean, there is a Russia-Africa Summit taking place later in, I think next week. And I'm just wondering about that, because there has been, the grain has an impact, obviously, globally, but what is the particular relationship in terms of why this Russia-Africa Summit is happening? And what's the impact there?

Heather Ashby: Yeah, I think one of the reasons it's happening now is that Russia wants to further demonstrate that it's not isolated as a result of sanctions, mainly by European countries and Western countries, which includes Japan and South Korea, Australia. And so, Russia wants to create this platform to have world leaders come to Russia, do the photo op, have these conversations, release a joint declaration that happens at these events, to show that Russia is still active on the global stage, still a superpower and sanctions haven't heavily impacted the economy, which it has.

Laura Coates: So, talk to me about the Russia-Africa Summit. I don't know that everyone has, has heard about this are knows what to expect. But what is it? This is not the first time this has ever happened. But can you give me a little bit of a preview of what to expect? And what they're hoping to gain from this? And obviously, while many nations are extending a 10 foot maybe even a 20-foot pole with Russia, what is the impact on Africa, in some African nations or not?

Heather Ashby: Yes, so this is the second Russia-Africa Summit. The last one was in 2019. And so, this particular gathering has faced a few hiccups. Most recently, of course, the war in Ukraine, because Russia has challenges being a strong partner for African nations because it has few things, they could offer to African countries to meet their needs and the challenges that they're facing. A change in climate, security issues, economic development, Russia is not a powerhouse in that regard, in the same way that we think of China providing funding to African countries for development projects, same with European countries and the United States. And so, with this particular summit, what they're going to focus on is security, issues of peace, which seems ironic, given what Russia is doing now, but it's going to be focused more on the UN system, soft power areas of youth and education and economics. There are some challenges in the past with Russia's Africa summit, in which they made promises for economic development, which haven't fully materialized, which makes it even more surprising that any African leader would go to this event, not only because of the war in Ukraine, but because Russia hasn't lived up to its previous promises of economic development for African countries.

Laura Coates: So then why? Is it because it's such a lucrative proposition that they will, they are a little bit, there is extraordinary leverage from Russia?

Heather Ashby: I think there is some appeal for Russia. One is looking at how Russia is trying to bypass this, pulling out of the Grain Deal to ship more grain and fertilizers to African countries. And Putin recently previewed that Russia is looking for alternatives and mechanisms to make that possible. Whether it's providing grain and fertilizers free, or doing that at low-cost option, still unsure of how they will move that grain through because of all the issues with the sanctions and insurance for ships to get to those various ports to share the grain with African countries. The other is, even though there has been some challenges with Wagner, Russia has on its government side and not on the private military and security company side has provided some military training, education in weapons to African countries. So that is another pill. And Russia has also come out strongly over the years of adding African countries to the UN Security Council and UN reform that our appeal in too many African countries to have a greater say in the international system.

Laura Coates: Have any African nations-imposed sanctions on Russia?

Heather Ashby: Not that I can think of, they have come out strongly in UN votes such as Ghana, Kenya did that. The UN Ambassador to Kenya had that famous speech on the eve of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, talking about the need for colonialism to end, what Russia was about to embark on. And so there are countries that have spoken strongly against Russia and have voted in those UN General Assembly votes condemning Russia's invasion.

Laura Coates: Which nations are going to be meeting, I mean, as part of this summit? Do you know, is it an overwhelming majority of it? Is it, or there are some that have said absolutely not.

Heather Ashby: I think it's going to vary. One idea about the attendance is going back to the St. Petersburg Economic Forum that happened last month. And though Russia invited a variety of heads of state from the Global South, such as the President of Brazil, none of those people showed up. And so even though invitations were extended to heads of state across Africa, it's still unknown how many will actually show up for this event, I think it's going to be a last minute determination, they're still most likely going to get countries that represent strong partnerships with Russia, such as Algeria, you may get the South African President, because we have the BRICS Summit coming up next month, Egypt, as well as looking at more southern African nations, maybe Central African Republic because of the strong security ties between Russia and the Central African Republic government. But it's hard to see whether the President of Senegal or Ghana or Kenya would travel to this meeting and do that photo op with Putin and participate.

Laura Coates: Really fascinating. Thank you so much for getting us up to speed. Heather Ashby everyone, the Senior Program Officer for the Center for Russia and Europe at the United States Institute of Peace. Thank you for your time.

Heather Ashby: All right. Well, thank you for having me. Really appreciate it.