U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: Joining us now is Dr. Andrew Scobell, a distinguished fellow with the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace focusing on U.S.-China relations, China's armed forces and defense policy, and China's foreign relations with countries and regions around the world. He joins us now Dr. Andrew Scobell. Welcome and good morning. How are you?

Andrew Scobell: Good morning. I'm good. Thank you.

Laura Coates: I know that there are elections happening next Saturday, January 13, for Taiwan, why is it so relevant, especially to Americans now?

Andrew Scobell: Well, the people of Taiwan, as you mentioned, will go to the polls in five days to elect a new president and vote for all 113 members of their national legislature. So, there's definitely going to be a change at the top. Not to be melodramatic, but Taiwan is the frontline of freedom. It's situated about 90 miles off the coast of the large and powerful repressive communist dictatorship that we refer to as China and Beijing. China covets Taiwan for decades, you know, their central goal has been to reunify with Taiwan. And officially they say it's peaceful unification. But their definition of peaceful and our definition of peaceful are rather different. What we've seen they've never renounced the use of force. In recent years, coercion, military coercion and intimidation in and around Taiwan has escalated. So, you know, we know that Xi Jinping and his colleagues are paying very, very close attention to this election. And of course, other countries, including the U.S. are, too.

Laura Coates: I mean, the outcome of the elections is obviously we're watching it, and it's notable here and in China, is the outcome of the elections likely to result in any major changes in Taipei's policy towards China?

Andrew Scobell: My view is no. But I don't think that's the way Xi Jinping and his cronies in Beijing see this. They are convinced that the election matters and will result in a meaningful change. In their view of one candidate whose current vice president of the Democratic Progressive Party, they believe Beijing believes that if he wins the election, and he's one of the front runners, that Taiwan will move further down a path towards independence away from Beijing. They also believe that if the other leading candidates from the KMT Guomindang or nationalist party wins, that will see Taiwan move closer to China. So, the perceptions matter more than reality. I think either candidate, whoever wins the election, we're likely to see much more continuity than change. And people and leaders of Taiwan are very smart. They know, they know, what could trigger a, a scary response from China. So, they will, you're likely to, we're almost certainly going to see a sensible, stable policy of continuity, irrespective of what happens in five days.

Laura Coates: I know you have also have a new podcast series it will be launched on usip.org, next week featuring members of Taiwanese civil society who in their own words are going to discuss what life is like with China's uptick in aggressive behavior. We look forward to hearing and seeing more about that information, hearing that podcast series as well. Well, how can we see it or hear it, excuse me.

Andrew Scobell: You can go to our go to our web page. And I think it'll be really easy to find. One. One quick point to make is that the topic of Taiwan gets a lot of discussion in Washington and around the country. But its usually people talking about Taiwan. This what we're trying to do at USIP is give a voice to actual people of Taiwan. What are they? How do they?

Laura Coates: Really important. Thank you so much for joining us today and we look forward to hearing that podcast as well. Have a great rest of your day. Thanks Dr. Andrew Scobell.

Andrew Scobell: Thank you, Laura.