U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: Joining us now is Jason Tower. He is the country director for the Burma program at the United States Institute of Peace. Welcome, Jason. How are you?

Jason Tower: I'm doing good. Thanks, Laura. How are you?

Laura Coates: I'm doing great this morning. Thank you so much for joining us. Bring us up to speed. I fear that many people have not been following this nearly as closely as you would as an expert in this area. But what is happening right now with the military operations in Myanmar and in Burma, what's going on?

Jason Tower: Um, yeah, thanks for having me on, Laura. So, there's been some really significant developments since October 27, when you saw a dramatic escalation of resistance activity in Myanmar. On that day, October 27, three of the more powerful ethnic armed organizations that operate in the China border area, launched this new military operation with twin goals of first eradicating the military dictatorship. And second to eradicating these scam syndicates that were operating on the China border using forced labor. This operation has really reenergized the resistance across the country. And you're seeing really the junta being dealt some pretty devastating defeats on the battlefield, including most recently, at the very end of the year, and spilling over into the new year, you saw the junta actually surrender roughly 7000 square kilometers of territory, about the size of the state of Delaware, right up in the China border area after they were basically militarily defeated by this coalition of armed groups. And since then, you know, you're seeing just really the state of military morale very low. And, you know, the military is really on its back foot as the resistance forces have really pushed forward. This has also I think, renewed some of China's, you know, concerns about growing instability in the country. And it's also gotten much more involved in trying to influence the trajectory of the conflict.

Laura Coates: Is China's involvement a productive or harmful thing?

Jason Tower: Well, while there's a little bit of both here, I mean, China clearly has major influence and interests in Myanmar. And to a certain extent, I think, China gave tacit support to the launch of this operation, because of its concerns about, you know, growing levels of instability, growing levels of transnational crime that were being supported by the military, in its border area targeting Chinese nationals. But also, the operation has resulted in some new instability along the China border, some of the military's airstrikes in response to this have landed on the China side of the border, there has been 20 or more Chinese nationals that have been killed as a result of that. And you're really seeing growing instability across the country. So, you know, China, on one hand, has been using its leverage against the military to extract new economic concessions, including a new deal that gives it unprecedented access, or will give it unprecedented access to the Indian Ocean area through the choppy port project. So, it's been kind of using the leverage on the military on one hand, but then on the other hand, it's also more recently been putting more pressure on the ethnic armed organizations in the border area, trying to push them to enter into a ceasefire with the military, consolidate their territories and forego some of the, you know, broader involvement in revolutionary activity. So, you know, in some senses, I think China is trying to stabilize the situation and its border area, push the conflict back from its border, but it's having the impact of also creating tensions across the resistance. And, you know, given the growing influence it has in country it's also giving China more access to the Indian Ocean, which does raise a lot of questions about the Indo Pacific, and you know, whether or not the growing Chinese influence might pose more of a challenge to a free and open Indo Pacific in the future.

Laura Coates: Help our listeners to understand it, especially why this should and does matter to Americans.

Jason Tower: Well, I mean, this this matters very much to America because, I mean, you're talking about a space, Myanmar, at the very heart of the Indo Pacific between India on one side and Thailand on the other. So, you know, by China having this oversized influence in Myanmar, it gives China access to the Indian Ocean, it could potentially give China kind of a leg up or more of an advantage in the Indian Ocean region. And you really haven't seen other neighboring countries like India do a whole lot so far in response to that. So, you know, this means that China is going to have a lot more influence kind of looking into the future in this particular area that is quite critical for the Indo Pacific more broadly.

Laura Coates: Is the United States government then involved in this? Are they is it one of those keeping an eye on or are they intimately involved and what could happen next?

Jason Tower: Well, I think, of course, the U.S. has been following very closely what's been transpiring in Myanmar and along with, you know, other international partners has been looking at pathways whereby which it could increase pressure on the military, in order to restore democracy in the country. And it's also been providing support to a wide range of pro-democracy actors as they look forward to opportunities to restore democracy in the country. I think one of the key challenges for the U.S. is that, you know, it also has to consider carefully its partners and allies in the region. And if you look at where India stands and where Thailand stands, they really have not been, I think, as keen on getting more involved in trying to provide support either to democracy or in trying to consider some of the challenges that might be there, as you see this rising Chinese influence. I think another concern for the U.S. has been the explosion of transnational crime. And of course, China's been cracking down on that on its border, because it's concerned about, you know, the many billions of dollars that have been lost to Chinese nationals as a result of scams. And these are very maligned forms of scams that are using forced labor. Now, since this Operation 1027, and this broader Chinese crackdown started on the border area, you've seen a lot of those criminal syndicates moved to the Thai border, where they're increasingly targeting a non-Chinese population, and including a U.S. population. So, you're now seeing many more victims of these different forms of scams in the United States, which is another I think, significant security concern.

Laura Coates: It really is. I'm so glad that you stopped by to break all this down for us. It's so important to hear from an expert in this area, Jason Tower. Thank you for joining us this morning.

Jason Tower: Yeah, thanks again for having me on.