U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: By the United States Institute of Peace as director of Africa programs, Susan Stigant, she's one of the executive directors for the senior study group on peace and security in the Red Sea region. We've been hearing a great deal about what's  going on right there. Both shores of the Red Sea, the Horn of Africa, which includes Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia, and the Middle East Coast, that includes Yemen and Saudi Arabia. They have some distinct challenges that are happening right now. Let's talk to her a little bit about what's going on. Susan, welcome back. And good morning. How are you?

Susan Stigant: Good morning, Laura. Happy New Year.

Laura Coates: Happy New Year to you. So, give us a little bit of what's been going on. Because I know there's been such a huge focus that people have been watching when it comes to Ukraine when it comes to Israel and Gaza. But perhaps they don't know as much about the overall security in the Red Sea region. Tell me about it.

Susan Stigant: Well, the Red Sea is a relatively small body of water, but incredibly strategic, and a place that we watch because of the importance of safeguarding what is amounts to about 12% of global trade that moves through the Red Sea, up through the Suez Canal and into the Mediterranean. And what we've seen increasingly is threats against major shipping companies. To the extent that seven of the 10 largest shippers have actually made the decision to redirect their ships down south to travel along the eastern coast of Africa, around South Africa, and then to make a much longer journey forward. And this has really been provoked by attacks and threats against shipping companies and large container ships, in part by Houthi rebels, Iranian backed rebels from Yemen. And this has also provoked the United States to announce what is the new task force to safeguard shipping and maritime security in this Red Sea space.

Laura Coates: What authority do we have for that?

Susan Stigant: Well, the United States has worked and announced this joint task force with 10 other countries and allies. I think there hasn't been any particular challenge to it. There's certainly been a response by those who are leading the attacks. I think one of the most visible ones, at least in the public space, came this weekend, where this US Task Force engaged with four boats that were attacking a shipping container itself, and three of the boats ended up being directly attacked. So, it seems like this, the situation continues to escalate. And as you said, at the front, it's an incredibly dynamic and challenging part of the world, in terms of the political and security considerations that the US has to manage.

Laura Coates: Talk to me about the senior study group, the report that was recently released, because it has recommendations that are quite broad about what could possibly be done to address at least at the surface level, at the very least of what's been going on.

Susan Stigant: Yeah, so the senior study group focused its attention, looking at the Horn of Africa, so the western side of the Red Sea, and was looking at how US policy and how the increased interest and engagement by some of the Gulf countries was impacting on peace and security in the Horn of Africa. We've had conversations in the past about the transition in Ethiopia, a country of over 110 million people, that saw quite a terrible war in 2020 through 2022. We've talked about the war that's taking place in Sudan. And what we know is that many of the interests and the factors that are driving and continuing this war come from inside of those countries, but it's also being affected by competition from outside countries to gain access to ports that run up and down the Red Sea, as well as broader interest just to safeguard the security area. So, what the study group actually recommends, sorry, go ahead.

Laura Coates: No go ahead. I wanted to hear that part especially.

Susan Stigant: Well, what the study group recommended was that, as the United States thinks about its foreign policy, it often thinks about Africa in one lane, and it thinks about the Gulf in a separate lane. And the study group argued that this is really an interconnected space. And that if we want to ensure that safety and security of the movement of ships and maritime, if we want to ensure transitions that were underway towards democracy and countries that can be allies to the United States continuing in the right direction, we want to ensure that this young, vibrant population of youth across Africa in particular, are becoming and see the United States as partners as they become global citizens, then the US has to look at this interconnected space. And it recommended appointing a special envoy for the Horn of Africa who could lead that diplomatic effort assigning and prioritizing assistance that would ensure inclusive growth and support the democratic advancement in some of these core, and very large, important countries in the Horn of Africa.

Laura Coates: Which countries present obstacles to this, because obviously, this would take coordination and agreement, which is the two words that don't always go hand in hand with strategic regions and strategic assets like the Red Sea. So, who are the hurdles?

Susan Stigant: One of the challenges that the study group identified is that there isn't an architecture or if we want to think about and sort of household sense that there isn't, there isn't plumbing that connects together, those who are making decisions on the western side of the Horn of the Red Sea, and those who are making decisions on the eastern side. So, there are intergovernmental bodies, in the Horn of Africa, there are intergovernmental bodies, in the Gulf, but there isn't something that connects across the two. And so, finding a way to promote better communication, to see and identify shared security interests, and to ensure that there isn't miscommunication, particularly at this moment where the United States is getting more engaged. I think this is a really important consideration for the United States to take forward.

Laura Coates: Well, you know, there's are there other countries that that don't want this to happen? But obviously, if you're talking about 12% of trade going through the Red Sea area, it means it's a very strategic and influential body, and I could see some trying to exploit the chaos or exploit the fact that there is not coordination to their advantage.

Susan Stigant: At the moment, I think what the main threats have been from non-state actors, so not countries themselves, but those who are who are working in opposing particular states. You know, there's a very small country on the Red Sea, Djibouti, and it has military bases, from the United States, from France, from China, and in this tiny little country, in a very concentrated area. So, I know we're often talking about the competition with China. I think there's a strong shared interest in ensuring maritime security in that space. But there's also there is some strategic competition about access to the ports and the overall shipping and trading routes that include the Red Sea itself.

Laura Coates: Really important to hear this perspective. Susan, thank you so much for joining us. I appreciate it. Happy New Year.

Susan Stigant: Thanks, Laura. Happy New Year to you.