U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: We're looking around the country and around the world, as we know our presidential election this year in this country will be chock full of conversations around foreign policy, in particular. Two years into a war in Ukraine, what's happening in Gaza, what's happening with Israel and the calls for a ceasefire just to name but a few examples across the globe that are top of mind. Lauren Baillie is the USIP's senior program officer for atrocity prevention. And she joins us now particularly on this ICC, the International Criminal Court, the issuance of two additional arrest warrants in its investigation of Russian war crimes committed in Ukraine. Lauren Baillie joins us now. Welcome and good morning, Lauren. How are you?

Lauren Baillie: Good morning, Laura. I am well, thanks so much for having me today.

Laura Coates: Thank you for joining us. Again, two years in, it's unimaginable if you leave and look at yesterday, I was watching the Oscars, and a short documentary film won an Oscar. For, I think it was several [20] Days in Mariupol. And the acceptance speech from the director and company said look, I wish I was never having to make this movie, was hoping to trade the Oscar and all the accolades that it has brought, for peace and for the return of hostages. Not to have members of the military killed and the many people who have been harmed. It remained top of mind for so many of what's happening and now the ICC has these two additional arrest warrants and its investigation of Russian war crimes. What can you tell us about the crimes themselves and also the arrest warrants?

Lauren Baillie: Sure, and that was such a powerful acceptance speech yesterday evening, it was really moving. So, on the ICC arrest warrants, it's a broadening of the scope of the ICC investigation that's happened over the past week. There are two high level Russian officials who have been indicted or an arrest warrant has been issued for them, Sergei Ivanovich Kobylash, who was the lieutenant journal, pardon me Lieutenant General in the Russian Armed Forces and was at the time, the commander of the long-range aviation of the aerospace force. And Viktor Nikolayevich Sokolov, who is an Admiral in the Russian Navy, and was the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet at the time, these crimes were committed. And we're looking at crimes committed over a period of a few months from the 10th of October 2022, through March 9 of 2023, and specifically at attacks directed at the electrical grid. And so, the court, the prosecutor's office, in preparing for these indictments looked at the attacks on Ukraine's electrical grid, to see whether they complied with the requirement that they be necessary and proportional to achieving a legitimate military aim and found by and large that they were not. So, the charges are the war crime of directing attacks at civilian objects, the war crime of causing excessive incidental harm to civilians, or damage to civilian objects, and the crime against humanity of inhumane acts. And so, this is a good range of crimes. And one thing we haven't seen before is that charge of crimes against humanity, which sort of looks at this from a policy level rather than just a crime level.

Laura Coates: And what would that look like in terms of the policy level? And that would be if you're having arrest warrants for high level Russian military officers, are they acting at the direction obviously, as someone even above them? Or is the fact that it happened at all the reason you're targeting these two for that particular aspect?

Lauren Baillie: It's a little bit of both. These are high level commanders who the ICC focuses on. So, they are also likely receiving orders, but they are the ones to which the ICC was able to draw, or the prosecutor's office, was able to draw a direct connection to command decisions, and then attacks on the Ukrainian population. And so, they're looking both at the incidents themselves, particular airstrikes, and the ways in which the attacks were conducted. And then they're looking more broadly at this being something that is not sporadic. It's systematic. It's purposeful. It's part of a policy of attacking the civilian electrical grid that would result in a crime against humanity.

Laura Coates: And, you know, there have also been warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin, for a Commissioner for Children Maria Lvova-Belova for the forcible transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia last year, where do those stand?

Lauren Baillie: So, arrest warrants have been issued. And what happens then is that the ICC must wait for states to use their enforcement power to arrest the perpetrator. So, Putin and Lvova-Belova. And then to transfer them to the ICC. And this is oftentimes where the ICC gets stuck because Putin is unlikely to travel to a country where he's going to be arrested, as are the other defendants. And so, the ICC is looking to member states to enforce its warrants. So, they can come before the court, but does require that they be present in a member state that's willing to arrest them.

Laura Coates: And in terms of the evidence that has been gathered in order to lead the issuance of the arrest warrant, how much of the United States been involved in that?

Lauren Baillie: Yeah, this is a good question, and one that has shown, I think, a change in the U.S. posture toward the ICC. Under President Biden's direction, the U.S. intel community has been sharing information with the Ukrainians to support their prosecutions. And additionally, U.S. supported projects like the conflict observatory run by the Yale School of Public Health. The findings of their open-source intelligence collection have also been used in preparing for these indictments. And so that's a big step forward, we have not in the past, the U.S., has not in the past shared information with the ICC. So, to see that happening, represents more close connections between the ICC in the U.S.

Laura Coates: So, these are when these prosecutions, these arrest warrants, these are the first U.S. war crime charges. These compliment the war crimes charges against Russian military members that were announced back in December 2023. Right? Those related to some other offenses, including torture, and those committed against an American citizen by the Russian military, right?

Lauren Baillie: That's correct. And this is actually a pretty big substantial development as well. So, for the first time since the War Crimes statute was passed more than 30 years ago, the Department of Justice has brought charges against four Russian soldiers, two named two still unidentified for their treatment of a U.S. citizen in the Kherson region shortly after the outbreak of the war. And so, what they have invoked, the statue they've invoked has actually allows for prosecution of crimes committed by U.S. citizens or against U.S. citizens. This is the first time they're doing it. So, it's quite a substantial development. But it follows also on the heels of some really major legislative changes, which allow the Department of Justice to broaden who it can look at and who it can prosecute when it comes to war crimes committed. So, they've switched now from requiring a link to a U.S. citizen to simply being present in a jurisdiction where war crimes have happened. So, for instance, if Vladimir Putin were to travel to the U.S. now, there'll be some head of state immunity questions, but we could in theory indict him for war crimes committed in Ukraine without requiring a connection to a U.S. citizen or U.S. territory.

Laura Coates: Really, really striking to think about how this will be used, and the potential means to address what has happened in Ukraine and beyond. Thank you for joining us today. Lauren Bailli, the senior program officer for atrocity prevention for the United States Institute of Peace. I appreciate your time.

Lauren Baillie: Thanks for having me, Laura.