As terror threats emanating from Afghanistan and Pakistan rise, many may see counterterrorism as a distraction from other U.S. priorities, such as competition with China and Russia. But investment in counterterrorism can work “preventively, to shield the strategic competition agenda,” says USIP’s Asfandyar Mir.
U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.
Transcript
Laura Coates: We're joined now by Dr. Asfandyar Mir, a senior expert in the South Asia program at the United States Institute of Peace. Dr. Mir, his research interests include the international relations of South Asia, U.S. counterterrorism policy and political violence with a regional focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan as well. He joins us now, Dr. Mir, welcome.
Asfandyar Mir: Thanks for having me on, Laura.
Laura Coates: Earlier this week, I think there was a Senior Study Group's Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Pakistan final report, can you just tell us a little bit and walk us through some of the highlights of what that study has revealed?
Asfandyar Mir: Sure, so we've been looking at this problem of the terrorism threat from Afghanistan and Pakistan since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan back in 2021. And one of the group's principal findings was that there is this conventional wisdom in Washington, that counterterrorism somehow undermines strategic competition against China and Russia. It takes away focus and resources as it did during the two decades of the war on terror. Our group spent time thinking about what would happen to strategic competition if there were more terrorist attacks. And so, consider this attack that took place in Moscow back in March. What if a similar attack took place against a U.S. interest or worst case in the U.S. homeland. And our group concluded that that would put immense pressure on the political leadership on policy makers, you know, pressure from the public demand for accountability, and that would really derail the strategic competition agenda. And so, a big conclusion of the report of the study group was that the United States needs to invest in counterterrorism, essentially, you know, preventively to shield the strategic competition agenda. So, that was one conclusion.
The other conclusion was that terror threats from Afghanistan and Pakistan are rising steadily, in a way that directly threatens U.S. interests. And our group is very worried about the threat posed by ISIS-K, what we saw in Moscow, we worried that could happen against the United States, either overseas, or, again, worst case in the U.S. homeland as well. There are several other regional terrorist threat vectors that our group is worried about. And then we made some recommendations on things that the U.S. government can do to take care of this threat, to mitigate the threat that is coming out of the region.
Laura Coates: What are the things that could be done to mitigate the threat? I mean, is it diplomacy, is that the solution or is that but one tool? What are the ways to do it?
Asfandyar Mir: Look on Afghanistan, our group recommended a part of what we call dynamic pressure and communicating with the Taliban. So, the Taliban are in charge and have control of, you know, control of Afghanistan. And we think that the U.S. government can do more to exert pressure on the Taliban to curtail space for terrorists. And this can be done by regional diplomacy, engaging with countries that surround Afghanistan, you know, shaming the Taliban through their, you know, bringing light to their violations of their commitments to the international community. You know, they support terrorists, bringing light to that some sanctions against the Taliban. Another set of recommendations dealt with Pakistan, and a group suggested improving the counterterrorism relationship with Pakistan, which has really diminished over the last few years. Pakistan is an important neighbor to Afghanistan and can potentially support U.S. counterterrorism activity. And finally, we recommend improving the military and intelligence posture for the region, giving more authorities to the U.S. military that oversees counterterrorism operations in the region. That's very important. We've heard about some shortfalls, and we think that it's time to correct for those deficiencies.
Laura Coates: Is there the appetite in the region for this correction that you described? Is there obviously, there is not one easy solution, but is there at least an appetite?
Asfandyar Mir: You know, in terms of regional politics, terrorism remains a concern. It's a shared concern. The region also has other priorities, and we worry that without American leadership, you know, shepherding, directing, you know, the region on this on this issue of counterterrorism. You know, we may not get that regional consensus that is necessary to exert pressure on the Taliban. So, there is enough of a common ground for stepped up regional diplomacy. In terms of the relationship with Pakistan, there is common ground as well. Pakistan has faced a stepped up, much greater terrorism problem since the Taliban has returned to power forces of the Pakistani Taliban have been imposing pretty significant costs on Pakistan from their safe haven in Taliban controlled Afghanistan. And so, there is some appetite for improved cooperation with Pakistan as well.
Laura Coates: What role I mean, is this administration specific, obviously, we're in a presidential election year and bipartisanship is not always lately, our strong suit when it comes to a lot of issues. But do you get a sense that whoever is in office, in the oval office in the White House has the biggest impact on the ability to change these policies? Or is it really more of a global collaborative discussion between allies?
Asfandyar Mir: I think our recommendations are valid and useful for the current administration and will be important for, you know, whichever administration is in power, you know, after November. You know, I think there is an opportunity to work with allies as well. You know, United States, its allies share some of this anxiety and concern about the terror threat that is coming out of Afghanistan. Of course, the challenge right now is that there's so much else going on in the world. You know, you know, tensions in Asia, with China, the Ukraine war, the crisis in Gaza, the situation in the Middle East. And what we're offering is a path which allows the administration to, you know, continue to focus on all of those priorities, but also maintain a focus on this important threat vector, which potentially threatens American lives.
Laura Coates: This has been really helpful to get your insight today. Thank you so much for joining us. I appreciate your taking the time Dr. Asfandyar Mir, senior expert in the South Asia program at the United States Institute of Peace.
Asfandyar Mir: Thank you for having me on.